Welcome toEconomic Perspectives

Economic Perspectives is a trusted provider of global macroeconomic and financial research, with clients in North America, Asia and the UK.

EP research weaves complex and diverse information into coherent macro narratives, providing clear analysis and original market insights for global investors. Our clients benefit from our long experience in connecting economic developments with the credit and financial market outlook.

The analysis of developments in global private sector credit markets is fundamental to our understanding of the global economic and financial outlook. However, the actions and interventions of central banks and government have become increasingly important to our economic assessment.

For several years we have maintained that the only credible resolution of the 2008 global credit crisis is a resurgence of global inflation. We take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers. We provide the multi-dimensional appraisal of the inflation outlook that is critical to formulating a successful investment strategy, at a time when inflation complacency is rife.

We offer different levels of partnerships, from Platinum to Gold to Silver. We also have Bespoke Partners, for whom we undertake specific and exclusive research projects or writing assignments. We aim to offer a unique and flexible service dedicated to meet your standards and requirements.

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At Economic Perspectives, we appreciate that our Research Partners have diverse appetites for thematic insights and research ideas, and differing capacities to engage with our research output. Engagement implies interaction, and we value every opportunity to understand the questions and conundrums that our Research Partners are grappling with. These interactions help to shape our research agenda and hence the content of our publications.

Peter Warburton has worked as an applied economist in London since 1975, graduating from Warwick University with a Masters degree and gaining a doctorate from City University in 1988. He has worked in the academic and financial sectors in a variety of roles and is a frequent guest on radio and television programmes discussing the state of the UK economy. He founded Economic Perspectives in 1996.

He spent 15 years in the City of London as UK economist and economic adviser for the investment bank Robert Fleming and at Lehman Brothers. Previously, he worked as an economic researcher, forecaster and lecturer at the London and Cass Business Schools.

He has been a member of the IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee since its inception in 1997.

He is the author of Debt and Delusion (create hyperlink to page in publications section), subtitled 'Central Bank follies that threaten economic disaster’, a critical analysis of the uses and abuses of debt in the global financial system, first published in 1999.

He lectures on the Practical History of Financial Markets course, based at Heriot Watt Business School in Edinburgh and teaches occasionally on a postgraduate course at Cardiff Business School.

He has a part-time role as economist at Ruffer LLP, the asset manager, and is managing director of Halkin Services Ltd, an international risk analysis service.

Yvan joined Economic Perspectives as a Research Economist in October 2017. Having been based in London since early 2012, he has first worked for three years as a FX Trader on a global macro desk at Societe Generale and then went to Imperial College where he graduated with MSc and MRes (PhD Program) degrees in Finance. His research interest was mainly focused on defining fair values of currencies and the construction of currency portfolio strategies.

Before that, he graduated with a bachelor’s degree in applied mathematics from Nice, a master’s degree in quantitative economics from Sorbonne University and worked as a quantitative analyst at Natixis Asset management in Paris.

Graeme joined Economic Perspectives in March 2015 having recently returned from a year and a half in Singapore.

In his 15 years working as a professional economist, he has enjoyed previous positons at London South Bank University (LSBU) , Reading University, Centre for International Macroeconomics based at Oxford University and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Outside of work Graeme enjoys running and being exercised by his three dogs!

Tom Traill joined Economic Perspectives in October 2013. He works on all the global publications, as well as the North American and UK Economic Perspectives. He has worked previously for the Trade Policy Research Centre and did an academic internship at the Institute of Economic Affairs where he researched corporation tax. He has a degree in Business Economics from the University of Buckingham.

Liseth joined Economic Perspectives in August 2017. She contributes to several publications with a focus on Inflation and Credit Perspectives. She has worked previously in the financial sector and as an economic advisor for the Colombian Trade Association. Liseth is an economist with an MSc in Investment and Finance from Queen Mary University of London.

Amy joined our team in June 2015 and is responsible for a number of areas, including a strategic development role.

She has a degree in Criminology and has a number of different work experiences.

Anne has fulfilled many roles at Economic Perspectives since it was formed in 1996, taking on HR responsibilities from 2010. Anne has a degree in librarianship.

Amy joined Economic Perspectives in June 2015 and is responsible for a number of areas, including a strategic development role. She has a degree in Criminology and has a number of different work experiences.

Sylwia joined Economic Perspectives in June 2010, initially for a special summer project which involved organising the company's research material. She became a full-time team member in September 2010, and is responsible for team administration and acts as a research assistant, preparing data, charts and sourcing articles for the economists.

Prior to joining Economic Perspectives, she was a Clerical Assistant in the Income Tax Department in the Tax Office in Hrubieszow and achieved a Bachelor degree in Accounting and Finance at the College of Entrepreneurship and Administration in Lublin.

Lesley is a Member of the Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development and a qualified coach. She has substantial experience in an HR capacity including policy and strategy development and enjoys working with a wide range of professional groups.

Lesley specialises in learning interventions to support leaders and leadership teams in developing effective skills to navigate their way through the constancy of change. She encourages new wave thinking; personal effectiveness and professional development.

Ruth provides administrative assistance to Economic Perspectives and has had an interesting career embracing different roles in a wide range of companies.

Deborah is an experienced accounting professional operating through her own company which provides bookkeeping, accounts and payroll assistance to its clients.

Deborah’s considerable skills and knowledge of working within owner-managed businesses make her a valuable member of the accounts and financial management team here at EPL.

Lucie joined us in April 2016. She has a background in sales and marketing. She holds a degree from Lancaster University in Comparative Religious Studies.

Team members bio

LatestFrom Our Blog

LatestGlobal Themes

The US Fed’s policy climbdown, in the wake of disturbing Q4 data and plunging equity prices, chimes with evidence of nominal GDP deceleration, yet a 3.2 per cent annualised print for real growth in Q1 suggests that the FOMC must soon tack in a hawkish direction. With little sign of wage bill deceleration, there is a clear inference that corporate profitability is in retreat.  We contend that there are strong implications to be drawn from the weakening profits outlook for the approach of the next credit default cycle. 

We imagine that the US Fed is feeling pleased with itself for torpedoing the belly of the Treasury curve, such that 5-year yields have dipped below 2 per cent. Federal Reserve holdings of Treasuries have been replaced by US commercial bank holdings as the banks run out of profitable lending opportunities. However, this is likely to prove a Pyrrhic victory as China devises a comprehensive retaliatory strategy designed inflict pain on the US economy and US financial assets.

The escalation of the tariff war risks the postponement or cancellation of corporate spending on which the ongoing US expansion depends. It has also triggered supply chain disruption and violent inventory corrections the world over, complicating further the interpretation of data.

The Fed’s actions since the start of 2019 represent a retreat into financial repression, rather than a prudent reaction to the effects of tariff escalation. The private sector response to an interest rate reduction is likely to be very muted and fearful of what lies ahead.  



2019 Winning Insights From Economic Perspectives

Click here to view the pdf.



 

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Listen to Peter Warburton's IRF Podcast - "Is the Game up for the UK Economy?"

February 8, 2021


David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined once again by acclaimed economist and author Peter Warburton of Economic Perspectives to discuss whether a bleak future is in store for the UK economy. Peter is pessimistic about the prospects of the UK economy in the next 3-4 years despite the UK’s relatively strong growth forecast for the year. Whilst Peter predicts a ‘spirited rebound’ in economic activity with the re-opening of the service sector in the second half of the year, Peter envisages this as merely an interval of growth which will last for only a brief amount of time. Peter believes part of the problem with the forecast for the UK economy is that not only has the UK suffered economically from lockdown but also from deglobalisation that has particularly affected London as a major financial centre. Peter has questions over how willing London office workers will be to return to office work and whether London can continue to attract tourism in the same way that it did pre-pandemic. Peter goes on to discusses how a pickup in consumer price inflation may affect the UK’s monetary policy and the strength of the Pound and gives an insight into what stock picks may carry investors through a potentially rocky economic environment.

Peter Warburton has worked as an applied economist since 1975 and has authored numerous books such as ‘Debt & Delusion’ and ‘The War of Independence: A Declaration’. Peter’s roles in the financial sector have taken him through stints at firms such as Lehman Brothers and Ruffer, alongside founding his UK-based consultancy Economic Perspectives in 1996.

 

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If you would like more information and a copy of the recording from our recently held webinar, please contact us at [email protected]
 

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Listen to Peter Warburton's podcast Ubi corpora?

Fiscal authorities around the world are waiting for their cue: that happy moment when the domestic economy has burst into life after the dark winter of lockdown recedes. These tax fiends, box-tickers and penny-pinchers are poised to recoup their lost revenues and zip up their purses just as an unsuspecting public breathes a sign of relief (albeit through a face mask). For the exchequer realises that there will be no second chances, no second bites of this particular cherry. Such is the potential cascade of insolvency that the tax authorities must be quick to present their claims. And the welfare departments envisage only a slender window of political opportunity in which to suspend emergency payments before the howls of protest reach their crescendo. For now, patience is the watchword, and everyone sleeps soundly in their bed, while the henchmen bide their time.

 

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Listen to Peter Warburton's podcast Red-hot poker!

Reportedly, US billionaires have added over a trillion Dollars to their paper wealth since the arrival of Covid-19! There’s nothing quite like a high-stakes poker game when your adversary doesn’t know how to bluff! Fed supremo Jerome Powell has taken the central bank put option to a whole new level, widening the horizons of moral hazard beyond our wildest dreams. Why drive an SUV when you can drive an SPV – a special purpose vehicle? The recent collapse of high yield credit spreads is but the latest ignominy for those who regard economic fundamentals as the plumb line. While the emergence of some promising vaccines raises hope of a permanent restoration of civil liberties next year, we fear that the damage to the handshake economy will be long-lasting.  
 

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Listen to Peter Warburton's podcast Waiting for the fiscal cavalry

There are some things that money just can’t buy: time, love, immortality, the elixir of youth, immunity from prosecution, a universal and effective coronavirus vaccine and economic recovery. (Note the omission of the UEFA Champions League title.) Governments around the world (except on the European continent) are spending like frantic philanthropists, determined to make their mark and are largely indifferent to the wastefulness of their endeavours. One of the strongest arguments against active fiscal policy in advanced economies in recent decades has been the weakness of estimated multiplier effects. While the Covid-19 pandemic has loosened the public purse strings beyond belief, the overall economic impact of the spending continues to disappoint.    
  

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Listen to Peter Warburton's podcast Harvest past, summer ended, not saved!

Jeremiah was a prophet of hope as well as judgement, but it’s the doom and gloom that sells papers. The hope of a universal and effective vaccine has been overtaken by the grim reality of revoked freedoms, dire warnings and political recriminations. The hope of summer has morphed into the prospect of winter. The spectacular quarterly output gains in Q3 are petering out, leaving the advanced economies nursing permanent losses of activity and employment. Private sector businesses, large and small, have seized on the Covid-19 opportunity to shrink their operational capacity, their premises and their staffing. Supply has adjusted to demand: there is little slack and even less inventory.  The state is left to pick up the pieces.     
  

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Listen to Peter Warburton's podcast Extend and Pretend

Expectations of an economic rebound in the Eurozone were more modest than for the US. As the US recovery founders on the rocks of an untamed pandemic, Europe’s more guarded public health strategy may reap an economic dividend, even though the EU fiscal package is less impressive and long-delayed. Political uncertainties are diminishing in Europe but ratcheting higher in US. The Euro has already signalled a thawing climate for European assets. Preferring the stalwart consumer franchises to the cyclicals, there is at last a catalyst for re-rating European equities.

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Listen to Peter Warburton's podcast Suspended animation

In 2019, doctors placed humans in suspended animation for the first time, in a trial designed to make it possible to fix traumatic injuries that would otherwise cause death. The technique is known as Emergency Preservation and Resuscitation (EPR). Over at the US Federal Reserve, they have been working on a similar procedure for the corporate credit market. aimed at stabilising the price of credits that would otherwise be in mortal danger. The success of both techniques entails a rapid cooling process in which brain activity almost stops. In the medical field, the longer the period of suspended animation, the greater the risk of reperfusion injuries (cell damage) during warm-up.  The Fed, on the other hand, sees suspended animation as a semi-permanent state and the risk of brain damage as a price worth paying.

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Listen to Peter Warburton's podcast Beware the bear steepener

Yield curve control in the JGB market is one thing; yield curve control in the US Treasury market is quite another. Non-residents own 13 per cent of the JGB market but 35 per cent of US Treasuries, and they sold a net US$300bn in March.  The gigantic expenditures of the Federal government and the stupendous liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve have amplified inflation uncertainty and validated fears of a protracted slump in activity. Both factors are associated with a rise in the term premium. We expect the Treasury yield curve to steepen in the 2- to 10-year segment against the wishes of the authorities and the expectations of institutional investors. This could be a painful reunion with reality. 

In the mid-1970s, mass unemployment coincided with a painful spike in inflation, particularly in the UK following a disastrous relaxation of credit conditions. A plunge in output and employment is neither necessary nor sufficient to deliver a weak pricing environment. Western governments have offered income guarantees with one hand but mandated a massive cut in productivity with the other. The inflation profile for the coming months is highly uncertain.

 

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Listen to Peter Warburton's Podcast on 'The madness of crowds, continued …', in which he recognises the potential for policy interest rates to drop further and financial asset prices to surge higher, but disputes central bank claims that the new monetary tools will be effective in stimulating economic growth or corporate earnings.

 

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The Property Chronicle has a number of brilliant articles including one by Peter Warburton titled Is this the age of permanently cheap credit?

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On 2 November 2019 Peter Warburton was interviewed by James Anderson of SD Bullion.

In the interview, Peter discusses the corporate credit market splitting into two parts: one that will continue to price off (or under) the government curve and a remainder that will price idiosyncratic default and illiquidity risk. Even if central banks retain control of the yield curve, this will not prevent the development of a destructive default cycle in the second part.


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On 29 November, Peter Warburton was a speaker at a Chambers & Partners Brexit seminar held at the Plaisterers’ Hall in London. Peter addressed the economic context, options and scenarios of Brexit.

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Peter Warburton discusses the unavoidable threat to the economy.

 

Recent

Publications

Global Inflation Heat Maps January/February 2021

Global supply chains are creaking
Despite a lockdown-induced slackening of economic activity, inflationary forces have regrouped. Surging demand for consumer goods in advanced economies has strained global supply chains, evidence in base metals, freight shipping rates and DRAM prices. Meanwhile, the recovery of the energy and transport sub-components is leading inflation higher.

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November 2020

Chart of the Month

The announcement of a further £150bn of gilt purchases by the Bank of England will send the public sector’s contribution to money supply growth to almost £400bn in the 2020-21 financial year, taking the annual growth rate to around 17% by next March.

It would be astonishing if this development did not unsettle the inflation expectations of the UK public.

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Data Source: Bank of England
 

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