Welcome toEconomic Perspectives

Economic Perspectives is a trusted provider of global macroeconomic and financial research, with clients in North America, Asia and the UK.

EP research weaves complex and diverse information into coherent macro narratives, providing clear analysis and original market insights for global investors. Our clients benefit from our long experience in connecting economic developments with the credit and financial market outlook.

The analysis of developments in global private sector credit markets is fundamental to our understanding of the global economic and financial outlook. However, the actions and interventions of central banks and government have become increasingly important to our economic assessment.

For several years we have maintained that the only credible resolution of the 2008 global credit crisis is a resurgence of global inflation. We take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers. We provide the multi-dimensional appraisal of the inflation outlook that is critical to formulating a successful investment strategy, at a time when inflation complacency is rife.

We offer different levels of partnerships, from Platinum to Gold to Silver. We also have Bespoke Partners, for whom we undertake specific and exclusive research projects or writing assignments. We aim to offer a unique and flexible service dedicated to meet your standards and requirements.

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At Economic Perspectives, we appreciate that our Research Partners have diverse appetites for thematic insights and research ideas, and differing capacities to engage with our research output. Engagement implies interaction, and we value every opportunity to understand the questions and conundrums that our Research Partners are grappling with. These interactions help to shape our research agenda and hence the content of our publications.

LatestFrom Our Blog

LatestGlobal Themes

The US Fed’s policy climbdown, in the wake of disturbing Q4 data and plunging equity prices, chimes with evidence of nominal GDP deceleration, yet a 3.2 per cent annualised print for real growth in Q1 suggests that the FOMC must soon tack in a hawkish direction. With little sign of wage bill deceleration, there is a clear inference that corporate profitability is in retreat.  We contend that there are strong implications to be drawn from the weakening profits outlook for the approach of the next credit default cycle. 

We imagine that the US Fed is feeling pleased with itself for torpedoing the belly of the Treasury curve, such that 5-year yields have dipped below 2 per cent. Federal Reserve holdings of Treasuries have been replaced by US commercial bank holdings as the banks run out of profitable lending opportunities. However, this is likely to prove a Pyrrhic victory as China devises a comprehensive retaliatory strategy designed inflict pain on the US economy and US financial assets.

The escalation of the tariff war risks the postponement or cancellation of corporate spending on which the ongoing US expansion depends. It has also triggered supply chain disruption and violent inventory corrections the world over, complicating further the interpretation of data.

The Fed’s actions since the start of 2019 represent a retreat into financial repression, rather than a prudent reaction to the effects of tariff escalation. The private sector response to an interest rate reduction is likely to be very muted and fearful of what lies ahead.  



2019 Winning Insights From Economic Perspectives

Click here to view the pdf.



 

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Listen to Peter Warburton's IRF Podcast - "Is the Game up for the UK Economy?"

February 8, 2021


David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined once again by acclaimed economist and author Peter Warburton of Economic Perspectives to discuss whether a bleak future is in store for the UK economy. Peter is pessimistic about the prospects of the UK economy in the next 3-4 years despite the UK’s relatively strong growth forecast for the year. Whilst Peter predicts a ‘spirited rebound’ in economic activity with the re-opening of the service sector in the second half of the year, Peter envisages this as merely an interval of growth which will last for only a brief amount of time. Peter believes part of the problem with the forecast for the UK economy is that not only has the UK suffered economically from lockdown but also from deglobalisation that has particularly affected London as a major financial centre. Peter has questions over how willing London office workers will be to return to office work and whether London can continue to attract tourism in the same way that it did pre-pandemic. Peter goes on to discusses how a pickup in consumer price inflation may affect the UK’s monetary policy and the strength of the Pound and gives an insight into what stock picks may carry investors through a potentially rocky economic environment.

Peter Warburton has worked as an applied economist since 1975 and has authored numerous books such as ‘Debt & Delusion’ and ‘The War of Independence: A Declaration’. Peter’s roles in the financial sector have taken him through stints at firms such as Lehman Brothers and Ruffer, alongside founding his UK-based consultancy Economic Perspectives in 1996.

 

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If you would like more information and a copy of the recording from our recently held webinar, please contact us at [email protected]
 

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Listen to Peter Warburton's podcast Ubi corpora?

Fiscal authorities around the world are waiting for their cue: that happy moment when the domestic economy has burst into life after the dark winter of lockdown recedes. These tax fiends, box-tickers and penny-pinchers are poised to recoup their lost revenues and zip up their purses just as an unsuspecting public breathes a sign of relief (albeit through a face mask). For the exchequer realises that there will be no second chances, no second bites of this particular cherry. Such is the potential cascade of insolvency that the tax authorities must be quick to present their claims. And the welfare departments envisage only a slender window of political opportunity in which to suspend emergency payments before the howls of protest reach their crescendo. For now, patience is the watchword, and everyone sleeps soundly in their bed, while the henchmen bide their time.

 

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Publications

Global Inflation Heat Maps April/May 2021

Inflationary storm clouds are gathering

A potentially explosive price move is underway as western economies emerge from Covid restrictions. The interruption to order flow has wreaked havoc in global supply chains and shortages are rife.  Commodity prices have surged in recent weeks and there are abundant pipeline inflationary pressures.   

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