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Economic Perspectives is a trusted provider of global macroeconomic and financial research, with clients in North America, Asia and the UK.
EP research weaves complex and diverse information into coherent macro narratives, providing clear analysis and original market insights for global investors. Our clients benefit from our long experience in connecting economic developments with the credit and financial market outlook.
The analysis of developments in global private sector credit markets is fundamental to our understanding of the global economic and financial outlook. However, the actions and interventions of central banks and government have become increasingly important to our economic assessment.
For several years we have maintained that the only credible resolution of the 2008 global credit crisis is a resurgence of global inflation. We take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers. We provide the multi-dimensional appraisal of the inflation outlook that is critical to formulating a successful investment strategy, at a time when inflation complacency is rife.
We offer different levels of partnerships, from Platinum to Gold to Silver. We also have Bespoke Partners, for whom we undertake specific and exclusive research projects or writing assignments. We aim to offer a unique and flexible service dedicated to meet your standards and requirements.
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Peter Warburton has worked as an applied economist in London since 1975, graduating from Warwick University with a Masters degree and gaining a doctorate from City University in 1988. He has worked in the academic and financial sectors in a variety of roles and is a frequent guest on radio and television programmes discussing the state of the UK economy. He founded Economic Perspectives in 1996.
He spent 15 years in the City of London as UK economist and economic adviser for the investment bank Robert Fleming and at Lehman Brothers. Previously, he worked as an economic researcher, forecaster and lecturer at the London and Cass Business Schools.
He has been a member of the IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee since its inception in 1997.
He is the author of Debt and Delusion (create hyperlink to page in publications section), subtitled 'Central Bank follies that threaten economic disaster’, a critical analysis of the uses and abuses of debt in the global financial system, first published in 1999.
He lectures on the Practical History of Financial Markets course, based at Heriot Watt Business School in Edinburgh and teaches occasionally on a postgraduate course at Cardiff Business School.
He has a part-time role as economist at Ruffer LLP, the asset manager, and is managing director of Halkin Services Ltd, an international risk analysis service.
Yvan joined Economic Perspectives as a Research Economist in October 2017. Having been based in London since early 2012, he has first worked for three years as a FX Trader on a global macro desk at Societe Generale and then went to Imperial College where he graduated with MSc and MRes (PhD Program) degrees in Finance. His research interest was mainly focused on defining fair values of currencies and the construction of currency portfolio strategies.
Before that, he graduated with a bachelor’s degree in applied mathematics from Nice, a master’s degree in quantitative economics from Sorbonne University and worked as a quantitative analyst at Natixis Asset management in Paris.
Graeme joined Economic Perspectives in March 2015 having recently returned from a year and a half in Singapore.
In his 15 years working as a professional economist, he has enjoyed previous positons at London South Bank University (LSBU) , Reading University, Centre for International Macroeconomics based at Oxford University and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Outside of work Graeme enjoys running and being exercised by his three dogs!
Tom Traill joined Economic Perspectives in October 2013. He works on all the global publications, as well as the North American and UK Economic Perspectives. He has worked previously for the Trade Policy Research Centre and did an academic internship at the Institute of Economic Affairs where he researched corporation tax. He has a degree in Business Economics from the University of Buckingham.
Liseth joined Economic Perspectives in August 2017. She contributes to several publications with a focus on Inflation and Credit Perspectives. She has worked previously in the financial sector and as an economic advisor for the Colombian Trade Association. Liseth is an economist with an MSc in Investment and Finance from Queen Mary University of London.
Amy joined our team in June 2015 and is responsible for a number of areas, including a strategic development role.
She has a degree in Criminology and has a number of different work experiences.
Anne has fulfilled many roles at Economic Perspectives since it was formed in 1996, taking on HR responsibilities from 2010. Anne has a degree in librarianship.
Amy joined Economic Perspectives in June 2015 and is responsible for a number of areas, including a strategic development role. She has a degree in Criminology and has a number of different work experiences.
Sylwia joined Economic Perspectives in June 2010, initially for a special summer project which involved organising the company's research material. She became a full-time team member in September 2010, and is responsible for team administration and acts as a research assistant, preparing data, charts and sourcing articles for the economists.
Prior to joining Economic Perspectives, she was a Clerical Assistant in the Income Tax Department in the Tax Office in Hrubieszow and achieved a Bachelor degree in Accounting and Finance at the College of Entrepreneurship and Administration in Lublin.
Lesley is a Member of the Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development and a qualified coach. She has substantial experience in an HR capacity including policy and strategy development and enjoys working with a wide range of professional groups.
Lesley specialises in learning interventions to support leaders and leadership teams in developing effective skills to navigate their way through the constancy of change. She encourages new wave thinking; personal effectiveness and professional development.
Ruth provides administrative assistance to Economic Perspectives and has had an interesting career embracing different roles in a wide range of companies.
Deborah is an experienced accounting professional operating through her own company which provides bookkeeping, accounts and payroll assistance to its clients.
Deborah’s considerable skills and knowledge of working within owner-managed businesses make her a valuable member of the accounts and financial management team here at EPL.
Lucie joined us in April 2016. She has a background in sales and marketing. She holds a degree from Lancaster University in Comparative Religious Studies.
Fifty or hundred Dollar oil: which is next?
Tom Traill | 2 May 2019
Yvan Berthoux | 4 April 2019
Tom Traill | 21 March 2019
In our new quarterly publication, GDP heatmaps, we note that the pace of nominal GDP growth has picked up almost everywhere over the past 2 years, transporting us from a 4 per cent world to a 6 per cent world. This acceleration has favoured inflation over real growth, especially in Asia, posing a clear threat to the ‘New Normal’ characterisation. Forty of the 53 countries monitored report an increase in the annual pace of nominal growth over the past 12 months, with the strongest net balance of risers over fallers since the end of 2010.
In the March Global Credit Perspective, we draw out the implications of this faster nominal growth for benchmark government bonds. Our statistical analysis suggests that bond yields tend to adjust to their nominal environment, implying scope for further increases. Specifically, we think that US 10-year yields could reach 3.75 per cent this year. The slowing in broad money aggregates appears to be a lagged response to other financial and economic developments, and is not indicative of global economic deceleration.Read More
Click here to view the pdf.
On 29 November, Peter Warburton was a speaker at a Chambers & Partners Brexit seminar held at the Plaisterers’ Hall in London. Peter addressed the economic context, options and scenarios of Brexit.
Peter Warburton discusses the unavoidable threat to the economy.
The US Fed’s policy climbdown chimes with evidence of nominal GDP deceleration, yet a 3.2 per cent annualised print for real growth suggests that the FOMC must soon tack in a hawkish direction. With little sign of wage bill deceleration, there is a clear inference that corporate profitability is in retreat. This month’s slide pack sketched out a scenario in which a weaker profits outlook becomes the fault line for the next credit default cycle. The US$2.2 trillion leveraged loan market lies at the crossroads of a skewed corporate debt distribution and a skewed distribution of operating profits. A critical vulnerability to corporate distress and delinquency lies hidden behind a cloak of respectable ratios for the US non-financial sector aggregate. The Fed cannot prevent a new cycle of debt default: debt prices and credit spreads must be closely watched.
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