Economic Perspectives is a trusted provider of global macroeconomic and financial research with clients in North America, Asia and the UK.
EP research weaves complex and diverse information into coherent macro narratives, providing clear analysis and original market insights for global investors. Our clients benefit from our long experience in connecting economic developments with the credit and financial market outlook.
The analysis of developments in global private sector credit markets is fundamental to our understanding of the global economic and financial outlook. However, the actions and interventions of central banks and government have become increasingly important to our economic assessment.
For several years we have maintained that the only credible resolution of the 2008 global credit crisis is a resurgence of global inflation. We take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers. We provide the multi-dimensional appraisal of the inflation outlook that is critical to formulating a successful investment strategy, at a time when inflation complacency is rife.
We offer our research on a subscription basis or as a bespoke consultancy service. Our publications reflect our research agenda, shaped by the issues raised in client meetings. Our bespoke work tackles research projects of particular interest to our clients and is delivered as written reports or presentations.
How we can help you Services
Economic Perspectives offers subscription and bespoke research services. Our subscription services consist of our written publications, dedicated calls and office visits, packaged to suit your particular requirements. Our bespoke services include client-directed research projects, written reports and presentations.
We offer research services on a subscription basis or as a bespoke consultancy service. We have our own research agenda, shaped by the issues raised in client meetings, but we are also keen to tackle assignments determined by our clients as stand-alone projects or one-off presentations.
Our research publications cover a range of topics, providing macroeconomic narratives and topical insights to inform decision-making by asset allocators, strategists, fund managers and financial advisers.
Economic Perspectives submits monthly short-term economic forecasts for the UK economy to HM Treasury and Consensus Economics. Peter Warburton is a member of the IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee and contributes a named section in the monthly minutes.
Peter Warburton has worked as an applied economist in London since 1975, graduating from Warwick University with a Masters degree and gaining a doctorate from City University in 1988. He has worked in the academic and financial sectors in a variety of roles and is a frequent guest on radio and television programmes discussing the state of the UK economy. He founded Economic Perspectives in 1996.
He spent 15 years in the City of London as UK economist and economic adviser for the investment bank Robert Fleming and at Lehman Brothers. Previously, he worked as an economic researcher, forecaster and lecturer at the London and Cass Business Schools.
He has been a member of the IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee since its inception in 1997.
He is the author of Debt and Delusion (create hyperlink to page in publications section), subtitled 'Central Bank follies that threaten economic disaster’, a critical analysis of the uses and abuses of debt in the global financial system, first published in 1999.
He lectures on the Practical History of Financial Markets course, based at Heriot Watt Business School in Edinburgh and teaches occasionally on a postgraduate course at Cardiff Business School.
He has a part-time role as economist at Ruffer LLP, the asset manager, and is managing director of Halkin Services Ltd, an international risk analysis service.
Robert has worked as an economist since 1996, joining Economic Perspectives in September 2010. He has previously worked for Sumitomo Trust & Banking as a market economist covering the UK and Eurozone economies.
Robert has also worked for Schroders, an asset management company, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC). He holds an MSc in Economics from Queen Mary & Westfield, University of London.
Robert takes a keen interest in financial markets and focuses on the macro picture in his research. His particular areas of interest are the Eurozone and Japan with an increasing curiosity for the Chinese market. In his years with Economic Perspectives, Robert has built on his understanding of the Japanese economy which he reports on each week. He has completed research projects on a wide variety of topics, including the US housing market, Japan’s financial stability and German inflation.
Graeme joined Economic Perspectives in March 2015 having recently returned from a year and a half in Singapore.
In his 15 years working as a professional economist, he has enjoyed previous positons at London South Bank University (LSBU) , Reading University, Centre for International Macroeconomics based at Oxford University and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Outside of work Graeme enjoys running and being exercised by his three dogs!
Tom Traill joined Economic Perspectives in October 2013. He works on all the global publications, as well as the North American and UK Economic Perspectives. He has worked previously for the Trade Policy Research Centre and did an academic internship at the Institute of Economic Affairs where he researched corporation tax. He has a degree in Business Economics from the University of Buckingham.
Geoff has supported Economic Perspectives for a number of years in a financial capacity and took on the role as Company Secretary in 2010.
He is a Chartered Accountant and has worked for several companies and now has his own financial management company.
Amy joined our team in June 2015 and is responsible for a number of areas, including a strategic development role.
She has a degree in Criminology and has a number of different work experiences.
Anne has fulfilled many roles at Economic Perspectives since it was formed in 1996, taking on HR responsibilities from 2010. Anne has a degree in librarianship.
Sylwia joined Economic Perspectives in June 2010, initially for a special summer project which involved organising the company's research material. She became a full-time team member in September 2010, and is responsible for team administration and acts as a research assistant, preparing data, charts and sourcing articles for the economists.
Prior to joining Economic Perspectives, she was a Clerical Assistant in the Income Tax Department in the Tax Office in Hrubieszow and achieved a Bachelor degree in Accounting and Finance at the College of Entrepreneurship and Administration in Lublin.
Lesley is a Member of the Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development and a qualified coach. She has substantial experience in an HR capacity including policy and strategy development and enjoys working with a wide range of professional groups.
Lesley specialises in learning interventions to support leaders and leadership teams in developing effective skills to navigate their way through the constancy of change. She encourages new wave thinking; personal effectiveness and professional development.
Ruth provides administrative assistance to Economic Perspectives and has had an interesting career embracing different roles in a wide range of companies.
Deborah is an experienced accounting professional operating through her own company which provides bookkeeping, accounts and payroll assistance to its clients.
Deborah’s considerable skills and knowledge of working within owner-managed businesses make her a valuable member of the accounts and financial management team here at EPL.
Lucie joined us in April 2016. She has a background in sales and marketing. She holds a degree from Lancaster University in Comparative Religious Studies.
The UK referendum result has sent a series of shock waves through the currency markets that leaves Sterling 16% weaker on an index basis, 18% weaker against the US Dollar and 15% weaker versus the Euro. It is fanciful to suppose that currency effects of this magnitude can somehow...
13 October 2016 | by Peter Warburton and Nick Stamenkovic
After the initial turmoil of the post-referendum fall out, Sterling appeared to be finding its feet again, buoyed by firmer economic data and the settling of the political dust, post-Cameron. Not a bit of it....
A shifting emphasis from entrepreneurial to employee incomes has revived the inflationary narrative. As corporate profitability recedes and credit quality deteriorates, global supply conditions will tighten and goods prices will stabilise. The complacent market pricing of inflation risk will soon be challenged.
Our chart of the month shows that the global unemployment rate is fast converging on its previous lows of 2001 and 2007. Advanced economies experienced a steeper increase in unemployment following the financial crisis, but have recovered more impressively over the past 3 years. A much more consistent economic performance in emerging markets, boosted by strong investments and the migration of people to more productive sectors located in cities, has helped to keep unemployment figures lower. Further ahead, the labour market outlook for emerging economies looks less promising, especially for oil exporting countries.