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Economic Perspectives is a trusted provider of global macroeconomic and financial research, with clients in North America, Asia and the UK.
EP research weaves complex and diverse information into coherent macro narratives, providing clear analysis and original market insights for global investors. Our clients benefit from our long experience in connecting economic developments with the credit and financial market outlook.
The analysis of developments in global private sector credit markets is fundamental to our understanding of the global economic and financial outlook. However, the actions and interventions of central banks and government have become increasingly important to our economic assessment.
For several years we have maintained that the only credible resolution of the 2008 global credit crisis is a resurgence of global inflation. We take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers. We provide the multi-dimensional appraisal of the inflation outlook that is critical to formulating a successful investment strategy, at a time when inflation complacency is rife.
We offer different levels of partnerships, from Platinum to Gold to Silver. We also have Bespoke Partners, for whom we undertake specific and exclusive research projects or writing assignments. We aim to offer a unique and flexible service dedicated to meet your standards and requirements.
Owner and Chief Economist
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Peter Warburton has worked as an applied economist in London since 1975, graduating from Warwick University with a Masters degree and gaining a doctorate from City University in 1988. He has worked in the academic and financial sectors in a variety of roles and is a frequent guest on radio and television programmes discussing the state of the UK economy. He founded Economic Perspectives in 1996.
He spent 15 years in the City of London as UK economist and economic adviser for the investment bank Robert Fleming and at Lehman Brothers. Previously, he worked as an economic researcher, forecaster and lecturer at the London and Cass Business Schools.
He has been a member of the IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee since its inception in 1997.
He is the author of Debt and Delusion (create hyperlink to page in publications section), subtitled 'Central Bank follies that threaten economic disaster’, a critical analysis of the uses and abuses of debt in the global financial system, first published in 1999.
He lectures on the Practical History of Financial Markets course, based at Heriot Watt Business School in Edinburgh and teaches occasionally on a postgraduate course at Cardiff Business School.
He has a part-time role as economist at Ruffer LLP, the asset manager, and is managing director of Halkin Services Ltd, an international risk analysis service.
Yvan joined Economic Perspectives as a Research Economist in October 2017. Having been based in London since early 2012, he has first worked for three years as a FX Trader on a global macro desk at Societe Generale and then went to Imperial College where he graduated with MSc and MRes (PhD Program) degrees in Finance. His research interest was mainly focused on defining fair values of currencies and the construction of currency portfolio strategies.
Before that, he graduated with a bachelor’s degree in applied mathematics from Nice, a master’s degree in quantitative economics from Sorbonne University and worked as a quantitative analyst at Natixis Asset management in Paris.
Graeme joined Economic Perspectives in March 2015 having recently returned from a year and a half in Singapore.
In his 15 years working as a professional economist, he has enjoyed previous positons at London South Bank University (LSBU) , Reading University, Centre for International Macroeconomics based at Oxford University and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Outside of work Graeme enjoys running and being exercised by his three dogs!
Tom Traill joined Economic Perspectives in October 2013. He works on all the global publications, as well as the North American and UK Economic Perspectives. He has worked previously for the Trade Policy Research Centre and did an academic internship at the Institute of Economic Affairs where he researched corporation tax. He has a degree in Business Economics from the University of Buckingham.
Liseth joined Economic Perspectives in August 2017. She contributes to several publications with a focus on Inflation and Credit Perspectives. She has worked previously in the financial sector and as an economic advisor for the Colombian Trade Association. Liseth is an economist with an MSc in Investment and Finance from Queen Mary University of London.
Amy joined our team in June 2015 and is responsible for a number of areas, including a strategic development role.
She has a degree in Criminology and has a number of different work experiences.
Anne has fulfilled many roles at Economic Perspectives since it was formed in 1996, taking on HR responsibilities from 2010. Anne has a degree in librarianship.
Amy joined Economic Perspectives in June 2015 and is responsible for a number of areas, including a strategic development role. She has a degree in Criminology and has a number of different work experiences.
Sylwia joined Economic Perspectives in June 2010, initially for a special summer project which involved organising the company's research material. She became a full-time team member in September 2010, and is responsible for team administration and acts as a research assistant, preparing data, charts and sourcing articles for the economists.
Prior to joining Economic Perspectives, she was a Clerical Assistant in the Income Tax Department in the Tax Office in Hrubieszow and achieved a Bachelor degree in Accounting and Finance at the College of Entrepreneurship and Administration in Lublin.
Lesley is a Member of the Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development and a qualified coach. She has substantial experience in an HR capacity including policy and strategy development and enjoys working with a wide range of professional groups.
Lesley specialises in learning interventions to support leaders and leadership teams in developing effective skills to navigate their way through the constancy of change. She encourages new wave thinking; personal effectiveness and professional development.
Ruth provides administrative assistance to Economic Perspectives and has had an interesting career embracing different roles in a wide range of companies.
Deborah is an experienced accounting professional operating through her own company which provides bookkeeping, accounts and payroll assistance to its clients.
Deborah’s considerable skills and knowledge of working within owner-managed businesses make her a valuable member of the accounts and financial management team here at EPL.
Lucie joined us in April 2016. She has a background in sales and marketing. She holds a degree from Lancaster University in Comparative Religious Studies.
Has US wage inflation peaked?
Tom Traill | 13 June 2019
Yvan Berthoux | 29 May 2019
The resurgence of global economic and political uncertainty, following the spike in financial volatility in February 2018, contributed to positive momentum in gold prices in all the major currencies from late last summer. However, the precious metal has been moving sideways since the beginning of the year despite the significant fall in real yields and strong demand from central banks globally. What will it take to send gold prices meaningfully higher?...Read more
Peter Warburton | 16 May 2019
The US Fed’s policy climbdown, in the wake of disturbing Q4 data and plunging equity prices, chimes with evidence of nominal GDP deceleration, yet a 3.2 per cent annualised print for real growth in Q1 suggests that the FOMC must soon tack in a hawkish direction. With little sign of wage bill deceleration, there is a clear inference that corporate profitability is in retreat. We contend that there are strong implications to be drawn from the weakening profits outlook for the approach of the next credit default cycle.
We imagine that the US Fed is feeling pleased with itself for torpedoing the belly of the Treasury curve, such that 5-year yields have dipped below 2 per cent. Federal Reserve holdings of Treasuries have been replaced by US commercial bank holdings as the banks run out of profitable lending opportunities. However, this is likely to prove a Pyrrhic victory as China devises a comprehensive retaliatory strategy designed inflict pain on the US economy and US financial assets.
The escalation of the tariff war risks the postponement or cancellation of corporate spending on which the ongoing US expansion depends. It has also triggered supply chain disruption and violent inventory corrections the world over, complicating further the interpretation of data.
The Fed’s actions since the start of 2019 represent a retreat into financial repression, rather than a prudent reaction to the effects of tariff escalation. The private sector response to an interest rate reduction is likely to be very muted and fearful of what lies ahead.
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On 29 November, Peter Warburton was a speaker at a Chambers & Partners Brexit seminar held at the Plaisterers’ Hall in London. Peter addressed the economic context, options and scenarios of Brexit.
Peter Warburton discusses the unavoidable threat to the economy.
We maintain that central banks’ decision-making has have become endogenous to financial markets and that the future impact of their policy changes is indeterminate. We can no longer have the slightest confidence that lowering interest rates will call forth additional spending by the private sector. At worst, the actions of a bewildered Fed will be interpreted as an additional cause for alarm and hesitation. Cyclicals have had their day: this cycle is looking very David Letterman.
While US stocks have lost ground since the Q1 recovery, Treasury bond yields have continued to fall across the yield curve, with the 10Y down 50bps to 2.1% since the beginning of January. As a consequence, real yields have also dropped below 40bps, their lowest level since September 2017. While the fit is far from perfect, the chart shows that the annual change in real yields tend to lead real GDP growth by around 1 year and currently price in a sharp deceleration in activity towards the end of 2019.
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