Publications

Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by info@economicperspectives.co.uk

Global Credit Perspective


Open all hours? (May 2018)

The global credit window is closing, but the central banks are doing all in their powers to hold it open just a little longer. Every month that they succeed means more growth for the global economy, more M&A financing and more equity buybacks. Meanwhile, the capital markets grow ever more audacious in their facilitation of corporate and investor fantasies.

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Global Inflation Perspective


How will we cope with the crisis of supply? (July 2018)

Commodity price inflation will play an important role in the broader inflationary story over the next 5 years. The relentless ambitions of China and India to build manufacturing capacity, transport networks and better housing conflict with increasing difficulties in sustaining and developing natural resource production.

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Global Credit Update

 
Corporate credit spreads are still fast asleep (July 2018)

A quickening pace of bank lending in India, Russia and Brazil has extended the EM credit upturn to offset a modest slowing in China. While yield curves have flattened in US and the Eurozone, they have steepened in emerging nations. The timing of the downturn in global credit rests on the impact of more restrictive DM monetary policy on EM credit conditions.

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Global Inflation Update


Heading towards biting point (September 2018)

Global inflation returned to an annual rate of 3 per cent recently, a level that it has not exceeded since 2012. Inflationary pressures are building most strongly in advanced economies, evidenced in producer prices and various labour market cost measures. Despite a slackening pace of world trade volumes, export price inflation remains firm.

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UK Economic Perspective

 All to play for, as we step into the global digital age (May 2018)

The Bank of England’s estimate that the current ‘speed limit’ of the UK economy is 1.5 per cent annual growth seems eminently sensible. From a sectoral perspective, how can the UK pick up the pace: what would propel us forward and what is holding us back? For good or for ill, Brexit will bring forward the global challenges.

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Eurozone Economic Perspective

Poor risk-reward in European equities (August 2018)

The Eurozone economy has flattered to deceive. Over the past few months, the loss of momentum has been confirmed and the economic outlook remains negative. The ECB has committed to a policy course that cannot readily be reversed, leaving equity investors with little to hope for, despite favourable relative valuations. Stay defensive.

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North American Economic Perspective


Has QE undermined the rationale for capex? (July 2018)

US capex should enjoy a welcome spurt this year, buoyed by meaningful corporate tax concessions and the forced repatriation of foreign earnings. However, the broader outlook remains clouded by the unforeseen and unintended consequences of QE, acting in conjunction with skewed corporate remuneration structures and investors’ search for yield.

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Global Research Digest

Watch the nominals! (August 2018)



Chart of the month

The tug-of-war over US Treasuries

The UK as a value proposition

National bank credit cycles: surprisingly uncorrelated

Economic outlook for the Euro area

Global Inflation Heat Map

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

August/September 2018

Global inflation reached 3 per cent in July, propelled mainly by the energy and transport sub-components. Inflation pressures have strengthened in advanced economies, particularly in Europe. Only in Japan and UK have inflation rates dropped in the past 6 months and even here, the weakness is expected to be transitory.  

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GDP Heatmaps


July 2018

Remarkably, given the headlines, there was no dip in annual global economic growth in Q1. The US stepped up to offset softer European growth and Asia was unchanged. Nominal GDP edged lower but held close to the 6 per cent growth that challenges the view that long bond yields have peaked. We await the impact of faster energy inflation.

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