Publications

Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by info@economicperspectives.co.uk

Global Credit Perspective

The tide is going out on failed leverage experiments (May 2017)

The prospect of interest rate normalisation and the onset of a new debt default cycle throws a spotlight on financial stability. Looking across several indicators of credit-related stress, the most worrisome combinations of stress factors in advanced economies are found in UK, Netherlands and Denmark; in emerging economies, in China and Mexico.

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Global Inflation Perspective

The year of the stag! (March 2017)

The secular stagnationists were half-right; as are the reflationists. Just not the same half. The sec-stag crowd misjudged the inflationary context. The reflationists mistake a temporary credit-fuelled burst of global activity for a permanent growth improvement. Stagflation is an unwelcome development, but it best fits the facts.

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Global Credit Update

Banks would rather earn fees than lend money (April 2017)

Global debt is decelerating in real terms, signalling the maturity of the credit mini-cycle that is currently spurring global economic activity. Government yield curves are flattening, swap spreads and some peripheral sovereign spreads are widening. Global credit is entering a troublesome and threatening phase.

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Global Inflation Update

Food, glorious food, is getting more expensive (June 2017)

As expected, global inflation has paused after a breathless rush since last summer. Advanced economy inflation is consolidating, but emerging economy inflation is waiting in the wings to shock and surprise. This inflation will migrate through supply chains and networks to drive a second wave of global inflation.

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UK Economic Perspective

The incredible shrinking shopping basket (April 2017)

Over the past 10 years, the UK has been one of the most susceptible countries to consumer price inflation, frequently topping the inflation league table of larger European nations. The post-Brexit currency weakness threatens to interact with the UK’s oligopolistic market structures to deliver persistently higher inflation. The gilts market is still asleep.

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Eurozone Economic Perspective

Lower for longer makes you weaker, not stronger (May 2017)

ECB spokesmen are still queuing up to insist that there is no urgency to remove the extraordinary monetary accommodation. Sluggish European labour markets provide plentiful political cover for their stance. Yet these policies are pulling the Eurozone apart, not together. Northern resentment towards the south is bubbling to the surface.

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North American Economic Perspective

Re-imagining ‘safe’ assets (March 2017)

The US Dollar has been a safe harbour for international capital during the storms of European financial crises and Chinese stock market turbulence. US fixed interest has been an especially attractive alternative to the madness of Japanese and European negative interest rates. Times are changing and the prospect of American stagflation poses a direct challenge to Dollar dominance.

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Global Research Digest

May 2017



Chart of the month

What happens to global capex when corporate profitability weakens?

Over-indebtedness alert: mind the gaps

Swiss National Bank: between a rock and hard place

Nominal GDP heatmaps for 53 countries

Global inflation heatmap

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

May/June 2017

Emerging market inflation ticked up in April despite continued weakness of Chinese food prices. EM supply chain pressures are about to turn nasty for DM consumers. Global CPI inflation remained 2.5% in April, more than 50 basis points higher than a year ago.

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