Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.
Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by email@example.com
Global Credit Perspective
When will bond investors recognise the inflationary threat? (September 2020)
A decade ago, Reinhart and Rogoff warned that elevated public debts would diminish the prospects for economic growth. A re-examination of this issue in the context of even greater public indebtedness turns the spotlight on inflation rather than growth. The debt vigilantes have become irrelevant in a world where government bonds are regulatory assets.Free Trial
Global Inflation Perspective
Who is really hedged against a sudden rise in inflation? (June 2020)
Disagreements over inflation expectations are running high. Even though the probability that global economies experience a period of deflation in the short term is very close to one, investors seem to downplay the chances of a multi-year inflationary backlash.
October 2020 - Waiting for the fiscal cavalry
There are some things that money just can’t buy: time, love, immortality, the elixir of youth, immunity from prosecution, a universal and effective coronavirus vaccine and economic recovery. (Note the omission of the UEFA Champions League title.) Governments around the world (except on the European continent) are spending like frantic philanthropists, determined to make their mark and are largely indifferent to the wastefulness of their endeavours. One of the strongest arguments against active fiscal policy in advanced economies in recent decades has been the weakness of estimated multiplier effects. While the Covid-19 pandemic has loosened the public purse strings beyond belief, the overall economic impact of the spending continues to disappoint.Free Trial
Nominal recovery will outstrip real recovery
After a truly catastrophic loss of economic momentum in Q2, output is recovering strongly in Asia, but rather less confidently in Europe. Replacement income and subsidies provided by the state have clouded the inflation picture, bringing a wide dispersion of values of implied GDP inflation. Annual inflation remained positive in Q2.
Global Inflation Heat Maps
Chinese food inflation abates
In recent months, the focus of inflationary concern has shifted from consumer goods and services to government extravagance. The inflationary implications of vast budget deficits, presently hidden from view, will soon become more apparent and disturbing. Governments and central banks remain committed to the inflationary project.
Macro Update April 2020
Smiling from ear to ear
The downfall of the US Dollar will be great when it arrives, but rumours of its demise have been exaggerated. The role of the Dollar as pre-eminent collateral has been reasserted by the global pandemic and reinforced by US selectivity in the approval of FX swap lines. A surging TED spread, signifying banking stress, is Dollar-positive.Free Trial