Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.
Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by firstname.lastname@example.org
Global Credit Perspective
The devil is in de-tail (May 2019)
The quiescence of the US Fed has emboldened many investors to downgrade their assessment of credit risk. We recommend otherwise. Global profits have entered a bear market that will expose credit risk on an unexpected scale. Watch credit spreads and flows into credit funds for a timely commentary on the re-pricing of corporate credit.Free Trial
Global Inflation Perspective
US inflation risks are to the upside (July 2019)
Asian goods exporters appear to have taken a significant hit to their profitability over the past few months as a response to the impact of punitive tariffs. Accordingly, North American and European consumers have been shielded from their effects. Meanwhile service sector inflation continues to creep higher in most regions and contexts.Free Trial
Beware convexity and reflexivity (September 2019)
We continue to look to global credit markets, rather than global government bond markets for the more reliable signal of the end of the global activity cycle. A powerful goods inventory correction is underway but the PMI threshold for global recession is around 45, not 50. As long as services PMIs are well-supported by easy credit and the default cycle is in abeyance, final demand will defy dire predictions. Bond markets are caught up in the dynamics of convexity, top-notch collateral and leverage, with the ability to unwind as rapidly as a coiled spring. That moment looks close at hand.
Nominal GDP decelerated in Q1, but not as violently as many had supposed. Profits bore the brunt of the slowdown, while employment income growth held firm. The deflation of traded goods prices took its heaviest toll in China. Remarkably, the annual pace of real growth gave no ground in Q1, bolstered by improvements in US, Japan and UK.Free Trial
Global Inflation Heat Maps
July’s inflation data suggests that the tariffs are starting to bite. Core inflation is rising in the US and food and clothing inflation is strong across the board. Energy prices, and their secondary effects in the transport sector, continue to exert downward pressure, but the negative base effects will not last much longer.
Global Credit Update
Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive (October 2018)
The recent steepening of government yield curves suggests that the nominal economic growth environment is robust. Real private debt growth in emerging markets has risen to 6 per cent, concentrated in bank loans. Advanced economies have sustained a steady 2 per cent real debt growth, despite a slowdown in bank lending. Credit spreads remain tight.Free Trial
Global Inflation Update
Concentrating on the Core (December 2018)
After a long period of stability global core CPI inflation is shifting higher, mirroring the acceleration of the global wage bill and the stronger pattern in DM producer price inflation. Emerging market inflation has rebounded in recent months, led by China, Argentina and Turkey. Inflation trends are diverging from activity trends.Free Trial