Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.
Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by firstname.lastname@example.org
Global Credit Perspective
What if we have to pay it back? (December 2019)
A surge in US corporate indebtedness since 2013 imperils global economic progress. The enthusiastic take up of the credit offer has not been matched by corporate earnings growth, creating multiple contexts of vulnerability. Consumer staples and discretionary, healthcare, IT and utilities deserve special mention. Small is dangerous.Free Trial
Global Inflation Perspective
Pushing on a string or stepping on a rake? (December 2019)
The aggressive reaction from central banks this year following the late-2018 debacle has eased global financial conditions and propelled investors to assume more risk over the past few months. While policy retains a bias to ease in 2020, the current pace of nominal growth implies that government bond yields are inappropriately low, especially in the US.Free Trial
January 2020 - Currencies in play
Dampened currency volatility and tight trading ranges can reflect settled expectations and confident fundamentals. Or, they can be expressions of nervous anticipation in the context of financial repression. If the latter, then we should look to much greater forex variability over the coming year as investors weigh specific risks and opportunities. If value is inching back into fashion, then cheap currencies (Japanese Yen, the Nordics, the Australian Dollar – and even the Euro) should outperform the former bastions of stability (US Dollar and Swiss Franc).
The tide of global growth is clearly ebbing, a source of increasing concern. Apart from a technical rebound in the pace of nominal GDP growth in Japan, there was little cheer in the Q3 data as we head back to a 4 per cent world. Subsequently, inflation indicators have firmed due to food and energy prices, while real growth has dipped again.Free Trial
Global Inflation Heat Maps
Global inflation surged in December, to 3.2 per cent, with notable increases in both core and food and energy components and diversified across US, Eurozone and India. Oil prices have fallen back after the early-January spike, but the arrival of the Coronavirus in China threatens to disrupt distribution and raise consumer inflation.
Global Credit Update
Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive (October 2018)
The recent steepening of government yield curves suggests that the nominal economic growth environment is robust. Real private debt growth in emerging markets has risen to 6 per cent, concentrated in bank loans. Advanced economies have sustained a steady 2 per cent real debt growth, despite a slowdown in bank lending. Credit spreads remain tight.Free Trial
Global Inflation Update
Concentrating on the Core (December 2018)
After a long period of stability global core CPI inflation is shifting higher, mirroring the acceleration of the global wage bill and the stronger pattern in DM producer price inflation. Emerging market inflation has rebounded in recent months, led by China, Argentina and Turkey. Inflation trends are diverging from activity trends.Free Trial