Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by

Global Credit Perspective

Plenty of scope for a spike in real yields (March 2018)

The global economy entered 2018 with strong momentum and is well able to withstand higher real short- and long-term interest rates. Potentially, benchmark government yields have further to travel, specifically, we think US yields could reach 3.75 per cent. The slowing in broad money aggregates is not indicative of slower nominal GDP growth.

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Global Inflation Perspective

Wet towels are not the worst possible outcome (December 2017)

The inflationary tide has turned, but the sunbathers are loath to abandon their sun-soaked positions. While the waves are still some distance away, they are advancing with military precision. It is still possible to maintain the illusion that the tide is going out, using highly selective indicators, but the broad sweep of data suggests otherwise.

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Global Credit Update

Watching and waiting for a new debt default cycle to begin (January 2018)

While leverage ratios creep ever higher, global credit metrics continue to deteriorate. Global real debt has slowed to a 2 per cent pace. Real bond yields are depressed, but look increasingly vulnerable to a corrective spike. Veolia’s audacious issuance on a negative yield indicates that corporate credit is priced for perfection.

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Global Inflation Update

Faster inflation is bedding down (March 2018)

Global supply chains, like heavy rainclouds, are bearing stronger inflationary pressures, resulting in rising import price inflation for US, EU and Japan. Across food, healthcare, recreation and culture, clothing and footwear, fuel and utilities, transport and communication, the trends in developed markets inflation are positive.

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UK Economic Perspective

Battening down the hatches before Brexit (January 2018)

Consumer confidence peaked in the summer of 2015, in the aftermath of Cameron’s unexpected election victory. The rot set in soon afterwards and financial conditions have tightened steadily for a swathe of lower-income households. Employment-hours are peaking, business failures are mounting and Jeremy Corbyn is waiting in the wings.

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Eurozone Economic Perspective

Time to hedge against a repricing of risk (February 2018)

Should we really ignore the potential for instability in Italy following the elections on 4 March? Will the ECB taper have no impact on both equity and bond prices? Despite increasing economic optimism, the Eurozone still carries significant sources of risk for the year ahead which are largely unpriced, based on a range of financial indicators.

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North American Economic Perspective

Cold comfort from low PCE inflation (February 2018)

The arrival of Jay Powell provides a timely opportunity to reassess the way that the Fed approaches its price stability mandate and how it communicates with markets. It offers a golden chance to dump the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE, a highly engineered fabrication that is ill-suited to the role of the central policy objective. It is clunky, quirky and wonky.

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Global Research Digest

February 2018

Chart of the month

Meet the Inflationists

Quick update on the Euro

Policy changes will probably not affect broad money growth

Nominal GDP heat maps

Global Inflation Heat Map

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

January/February 2018

Japan almost made it on to the leader board this month, with an 80-basis-point increase in headline inflation over the past 6 months. Indian inflation has jumped back over 5 per cent. A broadening of inflationary pressures is evidenced below from the consistent progress of core measures in the major economies.

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GDP heatmaps

February 2018

Over the past 2 years, the pace of nominal GDP growth has picked up almost everywhere. This acceleration has favoured inflation over real growth, especially in Asia, posing a clear threat to the ‘new normal’ characterisation of the world. Government bond yields have yet to complete their adjustment to the stronger nominal framework.

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