Publications

Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by info@economicperspectives.co.uk

Global Credit Perspective


Dettes sans frontières (November 2018)

Credit creation has gone viral in a world of very low interest rates. Alternative forms of unsecured debt are exploding on to the scene with astonishing regularity and success. Nowhere is as desperate for Alt-finance as China. At current, exponential growth rates, these new expressions of debt may already have macroeconomic significance.

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Global Inflation Perspective


Credit is the gas inthe global balloon (December 2018)

Global monetary deceleration may well have implications for asset prices, but monetary aggregates, narrow and wide, have long since ceased to be informative regarding the outlook for global CPI inflation. The real threat to the Little Inflation comes from a fracturing of the credit system, not the slowing growth of money measures. 

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Global Credit Update

 
Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive (October 2018)

The recent steepening of government yield curves suggests that the nominal economic growth environment is robust. Real private debt growth in emerging markets has risen to 6 per cent, concentrated in bank loans. Advanced economies have sustained a steady 2 per cent real debt growth, despite a slowdown in bank lending. Credit spreads remain tight. 

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Global Inflation Update


Concentrating on the Core (December 2018)

After a long period of stability global core CPI inflation is shifting higher, mirroring the acceleration of the global wage bill and the stronger pattern in DM producer price inflation. Emerging market inflation has rebounded in recent months, led by China, Argentina and Turkey. Inflation trends are diverging from activity trends.

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UK Economic Perspective

More work, anyone? (November 2018)

On the broadest definitions of unemployment and underemployment, this is the tightest UK labour market for almost 40 years. Force of circumstance, and a falling pace of inward migration, have nudged up employment rates, but labour shortages have become more acute, boosting wage inflation in the construction, communication and hospitality sectors.

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Eurozone Economic Perspective

Who will buy Euro bonds in 2019? (December 2018)

If the US Federal Reserve is losing its nerve, in terms of removing policy stimulus, what price the ECB to hold its course? If the US has given up on fiscal discipline, what chance that Eurozone budget deficits can be restrained to Maastricht limits?  ECB intransigence in the face of fading global activity could carry a heavy price in unwanted currency strength.

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North American Economic Perspective


What if QT stops sooner? (December 2018)

After a year of quantitative tightening, concerns are escalating over unintended consequences for market functioning and liquidity. To press ahead with QT is to force the dismantling of leverage and derivative trades that underpin asset prices. The scene is set for an early abandonment of QT, and the scope for a reassessment of market dynamics in 2019.

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Global Research Digest

Shaping up for a global policy crisis in 2019 (December 2018)


Chart of the month

Taking stock of the inventory contribution to US growth

US balance sheet shrinkage

Money has lost its purchase on the global inflation outlook

Euro strength in 2019: the ‘killer’ leg? 

Global Inflation Heat Map

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

December 2018/January 2019

While global core inflation is holding steady, the impact of sharply lower crude oil prices and transport costs cut a swathe through headline inflation rates in November. Wage acceleration appears to have taken hold in US, Japan and UK, among others, suggesting that inflationary pressures will continue to bubble below the surface. 

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GDP Heatmaps

January 2019

Allowing for the typhoon-disrupted data for Japan, the September quarter held fast to the 6 per cent nominal pace first recorded a year ago. While 28 countries reported faster inflation in Q3, only 17 scored higher annual real GDP growth, mostly by the thinnest of margins and none in Asia. The US is no locomotive.

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