Publications

Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by info@economicperspectives.co.uk

Global Credit Perspective

Corporate debt can be rolled indefinitely. Personal debt cannot.(September 2017)

Can interest rates stay low for ever? Is the reallocation of expenditures from debt service to household consumption and business investment permanent? An unanticipated rise in borrowing costs by even 200 basis points would bring material economic disruption in some countries. Canada, Australia and Sweden look the most vulnerable.

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Global Inflation Perspective

The global inflation trend switched direction in 2016 (September 2017)

The acceleration of global nominal GDP implies faster nominal wage and profits growth. A more urgent adjustment of short-term interest rates and 10-year bond yields has arrived. Last year’s oil price bounce has been digested and absorbed. Inflation is bursting out of supply chains, labour and commodity markets.

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Global Credit Update

 This credit cycle is showing signs of fatigue (July 2017)

The gradual weakening of global credit metrics, particularly in real terms, poses a material threat to the global economic expansion in 2018-19. Central bankers often speak as though this is the beginning of a cyclical upturn: far from it. A fast-maturing credit cycle is about to tighten credit conditions more abruptly than policymakers or investors expect.

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Global Inflation Update

Back to school for global inflation (September 2017)

The summer retracement in global inflation looks likely to be reversed soon as supply disruptions have confirmed a stronger energy price trend. Food price inflation is also on the move in China and Korea, with Indian food price deflation also abating. Emerging markets are expected to drive an inflationary resurgence in coming months.

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UK Economic Perspective

Brexit is personal and political (October 2017)

This is a tense time for the UK economy as the consumer leaves centre stage. The supporting acts of business investment and net exports are notoriously unreliable. Fiscal relaxation could save the day, but Chancellor Hammond has stage fright. The road to April 2019 looks long and arduous, unless he rises to the occasion or steps aside.

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Eurozone Economic Perspective

Eurozone HY bonds on a 2.3 per cent yield, anyone? (August 2017)

The trade-weighted appreciation of the Euro, reaching 7.5 per cent since May, betrays an increasing expectation of ECB policy reversal. While the focus is understandably on the tapering of asset purchases, there are many other dimensions of policy normalisation that will be required. Draghi et al have been overtaken by events.

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North American Economic Perspective

Shocked to the core? (October 2017)

The magnetic attraction of the inflation rate to the Fed’s 2 per cent objective will soon be stress-tested to the upside, despite the protestations of the deflationists. The latest US budget proposals identify the president as an inflationist and a pragmatist. The FOMC is unlikely to change course on the normalisation of interest rates as long as an expansionary budget is under consideration.

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Global Research Digest

September 2017



Chart of the month

There is no safe exit from unconventional monetary policy

Global Inflation Update

Global Inflation Perspective: fiscal relaxation in the offing

North America Economic Perspective: Canada plays catch-up

Global inflation heatmap

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

September/October 2017

Inflationary momentum is building again, with pressures increasingly apparent in most economies. Global annual inflation has risen to 2.4%, and both advanced and emerging aggregates have also risen. Fluctuating oil prices continue to impact inflation rates in all markets, but are no longer the driving force.

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