Publications

Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by info@economicperspectives.co.uk

Global Credit Perspective


Dettes sans frontières (November 2018)

Credit creation has gone viral in a world of very low interest rates. Alternative forms of unsecured debt are exploding on to the scene with astonishing regularity and success. Nowhere is as desperate for Alt-finance as China. At current, exponential growth rates, these new expressions of debt may already have macroeconomic significance.

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Global Inflation Perspective


Wage inflation still has the scope to pull a fast one (November 2018)

Global wage acceleration is a recent phenomenon, which casts doubt on the widely-held view that the global economic cycle is fully mature. Non-wage incomes, including corporate earnings, are still growing faster than the wage bill in most large countries, consistent with an absent recovery in the global labour share.

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Global Credit Update

 
Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive (October 2018)

The recent steepening of government yield curves suggests that the nominal economic growth environment is robust. Real private debt growth in emerging markets has risen to 6 per cent, concentrated in bank loans. Advanced economies have sustained a steady 2 per cent real debt growth, despite a slowdown in bank lending. Credit spreads remain tight. 

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Global Inflation Update


Concentrating on the Core (December 2018)

After a long period of stability global core CPI inflation is shifting higher, mirroring the acceleration of the global wage bill and the stronger pattern in DM producer price inflation. Emerging market inflation has rebounded in recent months, led by China, Argentina and Turkey. Inflation trends are diverging from activity trends.

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UK Economic Perspective

 All to play for, as we step into the global digital age (May 2018)

The Bank of England’s estimate that the current ‘speed limit’ of the UK economy is 1.5 per cent annual growth seems eminently sensible. From a sectoral perspective, how can the UK pick up the pace: what would propel us forward and what is holding us back? For good or for ill, Brexit will bring forward the global challenges.

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Eurozone Economic Perspective

Poor risk-reward in European equities (August 2018)

The Eurozone economy has flattered to deceive. Over the past few months, the loss of momentum has been confirmed and the economic outlook remains negative. The ECB has committed to a policy course that cannot readily be reversed, leaving equity investors with little to hope for, despite favourable relative valuations. Stay defensive.

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North American Economic Perspective


What if QT stops sooner? (December 2018)

After a year of quantitative tightening, concerns are escalating over unintended consequences for market functioning and liquidity. To press ahead with QT is to force the dismantling of leverage and derivative trades that underpin asset prices. The scene is set for an early abandonment of QT, and the scope for a reassessment of market dynamics in 2019.

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Global Research Digest

An aging US expansion has just passed its medical (November 2018)


Chart of the month

Why the crude oil price won’t save US Treasuries

Oh no! Oh no! It’s off to work I go

Still waiting for a decisive turn in the global labour share

China’s enthusiastic embrace of fintech

Global Inflation Heat Map

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

November/December 2018

While the slide in crude oil prices has dominated the inflationary news in recent days, this has yet to exert an impact on headline CPI data. European housing costs rose uniformly in October as a reminder of the multi-faceted transmission of inflation. Producer prices are still generating upside surprises, resonant with supply-chain pressures.

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GDP Heatmaps


October 2018

Data for the June quarter provided clear confirmation of the strong nominal momentum of the global economy. All regions contributed to the recorded 6.2 per cent annual growth, but the US surge was notable. There is more to come in Q3 when Japan should also register an uplift to nominal growth. Increasing global inflation was responsible.

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