Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.
Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by [email protected]
Global Credit Perspective
When will bond investors recognise the inflationary threat? (September 2020)
A decade ago, Reinhart and Rogoff warned that elevated public debts would diminish the prospects for economic growth. A re-examination of this issue in the context of even greater public indebtedness turns the spotlight on inflation rather than growth. The debt vigilantes have become irrelevant in a world where government bonds are regulatory assets.Free Trial
Global Inflation Perspective
Who is really hedged against a sudden rise in inflation? (June 2020)
Disagreements over inflation expectations are running high. Even though the probability that global economies experience a period of deflation in the short term is very close to one, investors seem to downplay the chances of a multi-year inflationary backlash.
January 2021 - Ubi corpora?
Fiscal authorities around the world are waiting for their cue: that happy moment when the domestic economy has burst into life after the dark winter of lockdown recedes. These tax fiends, box-tickers and penny-pinchers are poised to recoup their lost revenues and zip up their purses just as an unsuspecting public breathes a sign of relief (albeit through a face mask). For the exchequer realises that there will be no second chances, no second bites of this particular cherry. Such is the potential cascade of insolvency that the tax authorities must be quick to present their claims. And the welfare departments envisage only a slender window of political opportunity in which to suspend emergency payments before the howls of protest reach their crescendo. For now, patience is the watchword, and everyone sleeps soundly in their bed, while the henchmen bide their time.Free Trial
Recovery will be a long-haul flight
Nominal GDP rebounded strongly in Q3, as expected, but is little more than halfway to recovering the momentum of late 2019. China is the striking exception to this pattern. While real growth was responsible for most of the nominal gain, implied inflation rose from 1.1 per cent to 1.6 percent in Q3. Only in Europe did disinflation prevail.
Global Inflation Heat Maps
Global supply chains are creaking
Despite a lockdown-induced slackening of economic activity, inflationary forces have regrouped. Surging demand for consumer goods in advanced economies has strained global supply chains, evidence in base metals, freight shipping rates and DRAM prices. Meanwhile, the recovery of the energy and transport sub-components is leading inflation higher.
Global Credit Update December 2020
“Neither a borrower nor a lender be, for loan oft loses itself and friend …(Hamlet Act 1, Scene 3)”
Crisis-inspired policy responses have energised global credit growth, steepened yield curves and flattened credit spreads. For now, risk tolerance is high and all systems are go. A powerful nominal recovery is required to keep loans whole. Meanwhile, bondholders look anxiously over their shoulders, rightly fearing a resurgence of inflation.Free Trial