Publications

Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by info@economicperspectives.co.uk

Global Credit Perspective


Plenty of scope for a spike in real yields (March 2018)

The global economy entered 2018 with strong momentum and is well able to withstand higher real short- and long-term interest rates. Potentially, benchmark government yields have further to travel, specifically, we think US yields could reach 3.75 per cent. The slowing in broad money aggregates is not indicative of slower nominal GDP growth.

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Global Inflation Perspective


Wages are playing catch-up (March 2018)

In economic models, wage acceleration is a pre-requisite for a viable inflationary resurgence, but real life is no respecter of models. The ongoing disintegration of labour contracts has driven a wedge between hourly pay growth and whole-economy inflation. The global inflationary race is on, but led by margin expansion and other forces.

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Global Credit Update

 
Still sceptical of the China tightening story (April 2018)

Against our expectations, the pace of global real debt growth has picked up to around 3 per cent, with suggestions that underwriting standards have been relaxed. Remarkably, the world of corporate credit remains unperturbed by the ascent of government bond yields. This dichotomy cannot persist indefinitely, but don’t hold your breath!

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Global Inflation Update


Faster inflation is bedding down (March 2018)

Global supply chains, like heavy rainclouds, are bearing stronger inflationary pressures, resulting in rising import price inflation for US, EU and Japan. Across food, healthcare, recreation and culture, clothing and footwear, fuel and utilities, transport and communication, the trends in developed markets inflation are positive.

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UK Economic Perspective

 All to play for, as we step into the global digital age (May 2018)

The Bank of England’s estimate that the current ‘speed limit’ of the UK economy is 1.5 per cent annual growth seems eminently sensible. From a sectoral perspective, how can the UK pick up the pace: what would propel us forward and what is holding us back? For good or for ill, Brexit will bring forward the global challenges.

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Eurozone Economic Perspective


Time to hedge against a repricing of risk (February 2018)

Should we really ignore the potential for instability in Italy following the elections on 4 March? Will the ECB taper have no impact on both equity and bond prices? Despite increasing economic optimism, the Eurozone still carries significant sources of risk for the year ahead which are largely unpriced, based on a range of financial indicators.

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North American Economic Perspective


Cold comfort from low PCE inflation (February 2018)

The arrival of Jay Powell provides a timely opportunity to reassess the way that the Fed approaches its price stability mandate and how it communicates with markets. It offers a golden chance to dump the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE, a highly engineered fabrication that is ill-suited to the role of the central policy objective. It is clunky, quirky and wonky.

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Global Research Digest

March 2018



Chart of the month

The Little Inflation with the Big Bite

Global Credit Update: still sceptical of the China tightening story

GDP heatmaps: why should core inflation stop at two per cent?

Major risks weighing on the UK economy

Global Inflation Heat Map

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Global Inflation Heat Maps


April/May 2018

Countries with positive inflation momentum vastly outnumber those with softening inflation trends, accounting for 75 per cent of global GDP by weight, with virtually identical proportions for developed as emerging nations. Global inflation is almost certainly headed to 3 per cent and probably beyond.

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GDP heatmaps


April 2018

The uplift in global nominal GDP growth from 4 per cent to 6 per cent was confirmed by the latest quarterly data. Notably, US, Germany and France are poised to deliver stronger nominal performance in 2018. Latin America is stabilising and Central Europe is on a tear. Rising interest rate pressures will persist even if real growth momentum falters.

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