Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by

Global Credit Perspective

Dettes sans frontières (November 2018)

Credit creation has gone viral in a world of very low interest rates. Alternative forms of unsecured debt are exploding on to the scene with astonishing regularity and success. Nowhere is as desperate for Alt-finance as China. At current, exponential growth rates, these new expressions of debt may already have macroeconomic significance.

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Global Inflation Perspective

Core inflation to stand firm (January 2019)

The recent violent correction in crude oil prices is still washing through global headline CPI data but the seepage into core inflation will likely be mild and brief. While cyclical inflation pressures are softening, structural pressures emanating from capacity depletion, oligopoly pricing, skill shortages and government regulation are strengthening.  

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Market Focus

Inflationary pressures reviving? (April 2019)

The US Fed’s policy climbdown chimes with evidence of nominal GDP deceleration, yet a 3.2 per cent annualised print for real growth suggests that the FOMC must soon tack in a hawkish direction. With little sign of wage bill deceleration, there is a clear inference that corporate profitability is in retreat. This month’s slide pack sketched out a scenario in which a weaker profits outlook becomes the fault line for the next credit default cycle.  

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GDP Heatmaps

April 2019

Nominal GDP growth held firm in the final quarter of 2018, despite the shocking deceleration in world trade volumes and plunging PMIs. The loss of momentum in real GDP continued in Q4, but the GDP deflator has sustained an annual pace of close to 3 per cent. Cyclical strength is fading, but there is life in the old dog yet.  

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

April/May 2019

Recognition of the rebound in crude oil prices was the main driver of higher headline inflation in March, with a notable boost to food prices outside Europe. While other traded goods prices, such as clothing and leisure goods, remain subdued in the wake of China’s supply chain convulsion, housing inflation is gaining ground in the Eurozone.

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Global Credit Update

Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive (October 2018)

The recent steepening of government yield curves suggests that the nominal economic growth environment is robust. Real private debt growth in emerging markets has risen to 6 per cent, concentrated in bank loans. Advanced economies have sustained a steady 2 per cent real debt growth, despite a slowdown in bank lending. Credit spreads remain tight. 

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Global Inflation Update

Concentrating on the Core (December 2018)

After a long period of stability global core CPI inflation is shifting higher, mirroring the acceleration of the global wage bill and the stronger pattern in DM producer price inflation. Emerging market inflation has rebounded in recent months, led by China, Argentina and Turkey. Inflation trends are diverging from activity trends.

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