Publications

Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by info@economicperspectives.co.uk

Global Credit Perspective


Open all hours? (May 2018)

The global credit window is closing, but the central banks are doing all in their powers to hold it open just a little longer. Every month that they succeed means more growth for the global economy, more M&A financing and more equity buybacks. Meanwhile, the capital markets grow ever more audacious in their facilitation of corporate and investor fantasies.

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Global Inflation Perspective


Wage inflation still has the scope to pull a fast one (November 2018)

Global wage acceleration is a recent phenomenon, which casts doubt on the widely-held view that the global economic cycle is fully mature. Non-wage incomes, including corporate earnings, are still growing faster than the wage bill in most large countries, consistent with an absent recovery in the global labour share.

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Global Credit Update

 
Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive (October 2018)

The recent steepening of government yield curves suggests that the nominal economic growth environment is robust. Real private debt growth in emerging markets has risen to 6 per cent, concentrated in bank loans. Advanced economies have sustained a steady 2 per cent real debt growth, despite a slowdown in bank lending. Credit spreads remain tight. 

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Global Inflation Update


Heading towards biting point (September 2018)

Global inflation returned to an annual rate of 3 per cent recently, a level that it has not exceeded since 2012. Inflationary pressures are building most strongly in advanced economies, evidenced in producer prices and various labour market cost measures. Despite a slackening pace of world trade volumes, export price inflation remains firm.

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UK Economic Perspective

 All to play for, as we step into the global digital age (May 2018)

The Bank of England’s estimate that the current ‘speed limit’ of the UK economy is 1.5 per cent annual growth seems eminently sensible. From a sectoral perspective, how can the UK pick up the pace: what would propel us forward and what is holding us back? For good or for ill, Brexit will bring forward the global challenges.

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Eurozone Economic Perspective

Poor risk-reward in European equities (August 2018)

The Eurozone economy has flattered to deceive. Over the past few months, the loss of momentum has been confirmed and the economic outlook remains negative. The ECB has committed to a policy course that cannot readily be reversed, leaving equity investors with little to hope for, despite favourable relative valuations. Stay defensive.

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North American Economic Perspective


The house price pause that refreshes (October 2018)

Subdued turnover activity and softening price trends signify a consolidation phase in US housing rather than an approaching recession. On a national basis, mortgage debt is being carried with minimal stress due to low unemployment and wage acceleration. Vacancy rates are very low and transactions complete quickly. Breathe easy.

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Global Research Digest

Macho-economics (October 2018)



Chart of the month

Gold stocks and the Three Bears

Resistance to higher prices is weakening

Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive

US national housing trends are structurally sound

Global Inflation Heat Map

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

October/November 2018

With increasing evidence of wage acceleration in developed economies, the inflationary narrative is becoming embedded. While US headline inflation has settled back over the past couple of months, global inflation has edged higher. The multi-faceted nature of the inflationary process brings resilience and reinforcement.

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GDP Heatmaps


October 2018

Data for the June quarter provided clear confirmation of the strong nominal momentum of the global economy. All regions contributed to the recorded 6.2 per cent annual growth, but the US surge was notable. There is more to come in Q3 when Japan should also register an uplift to nominal growth. Increasing global inflation was responsible.

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