Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by

Global Credit Perspective

Open all hours? (May 2018)

The global credit window is closing, but the central banks are doing all in their powers to hold it open just a little longer. Every month that they succeed means more growth for the global economy, more M&A financing and more equity buybacks. Meanwhile, the capital markets grow ever more audacious in their facilitation of corporate and investor fantasies.

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Global Inflation Perspective

Wages are playing catch-up (March 2018)

In economic models, wage acceleration is a pre-requisite for a viable inflationary resurgence, but real life is no respecter of models. The ongoing disintegration of labour contracts has driven a wedge between hourly pay growth and whole-economy inflation. The global inflationary race is on, but led by margin expansion and other forces.

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Global Credit Update

Corporate credit spreads are still fast asleep (July 2018)

A quickening pace of bank lending in India, Russia and Brazil has extended the EM credit upturn to offset a modest slowing in China. While yield curves have flattened in US and the Eurozone, they have steepened in emerging nations. The timing of the downturn in global credit rests on the impact of more restrictive DM monetary policy on EM credit conditions.

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Global Inflation Update

3 per cent, here we come (June 2018)

The centre of gravity of the global inflation distribution has shifted over the past year, with the number of nations recording 2 per cent to 4 per cent inflation rising from 36 to 50. Unit labour cost inflation is rebounding and producer price inflation is reacting to tighter market conditions for energy and raw materials.

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UK Economic Perspective

 All to play for, as we step into the global digital age (May 2018)

The Bank of England’s estimate that the current ‘speed limit’ of the UK economy is 1.5 per cent annual growth seems eminently sensible. From a sectoral perspective, how can the UK pick up the pace: what would propel us forward and what is holding us back? For good or for ill, Brexit will bring forward the global challenges.

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Eurozone Economic Perspective

Straining the limits of the Draghi put (June 2018)

Europe's democratic deficit has opened into a chasm in recent weeks. We will soon discover whether the EU has effective sanctions with which to haul Italy's new government back into line. For the first time in 6 years, the existential threat to the Euro has re-emerged, casting doubt on the ECB's ability to execute an exit strategy.

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North American Economic Perspective

Has QE undermined the rationale for capex? (July 2018)

US capex should enjoy a welcome spurt this year, buoyed by meaningful corporate tax concessions and the forced repatriation of foreign earnings. However, the broader outlook remains clouded by the unforeseen and unintended consequences of QE, acting in conjunction with skewed corporate remuneration structures and investors’ search for yield.

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Global Research Digest

There are no winners in trade wars (June 2018)

Chart of the month

Tariffs: a recipe for supply-side chaos and higher inflation

Commodity prices and speculation

Three per cent, here we come

The outlook for US capex

Global Inflation Heat Map

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

July/August 2018

A combination of rising fuel costs and tightening labour markets has driven up annual inflation in transportation to 7 per cent in the US, 5.7 per cent in UK, 5.5 per cent in France and 4.6 per cent across the Euro area. After a breather, Asian inflation has revived: in India the headline rate is back to 5 per cent and in the Philippines, 5.7 per cent.

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GDP Heatmaps

July 2018

Remarkably, given the headlines, there was no dip in annual global economic growth in Q1. The US stepped up to offset softer European growth and Asia was unchanged. Nominal GDP edged lower but held close to the 6 per cent growth that challenges the view that long bond yields have peaked. We await the impact of faster energy inflation.

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