Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.
Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by firstname.lastname@example.org
Global Credit Perspective
What if we have to pay it back? (December 2019)
A surge in US corporate indebtedness since 2013 imperils global economic progress. The enthusiastic take up of the credit offer has not been matched by corporate earnings growth, creating multiple contexts of vulnerability. Consumer staples and discretionary, healthcare, IT and utilities deserve special mention. Small is dangerous.Free Trial
Global Inflation Perspective
Pushing on a string or stepping on a rake? (December 2019)
The aggressive reaction from central banks this year following the late-2018 debacle has eased global financial conditions and propelled investors to assume more risk over the past few months. While policy retains a bias to ease in 2020, the current pace of nominal growth implies that government bond yields are inappropriately low, especially in the US.Free Trial
Currencies to be more volatile in 2020 (December 2019)
The US Dollar and the Swiss Franc appear to be the most overvalued currencies in the developed world, while the Japanese Yen, the Nordics and the Australian Dollar look the best value. We contend that the strength of the US dollar in the past 2 years has mainly been associated with the rise in uncertainty around the world, which has eroded growth expectations and therefore increased the demand for safe havens. There is a strong co-movement between the annual change in the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index and the annual change in the US Dollar (broad exchange rate NEER). If the business sentiment starts to improve in the first half of 2020, in the light of the decisive UK election and the easing of trade tensions between US and China, we anticipate that the US Dollar index will weaken.
The tide of global growth is clearly ebbing, a source of increasing concern. Apart from a technical rebound in the pace of nominal GDP growth in Japan, there was little cheer in the Q3 data as we head back to a 4 per cent world. Subsequently, inflation indicators have firmed due to food and energy prices, while real growth has dipped again.Free Trial
Global Inflation Heat Maps
December 2019/January 2020
In November, global headline inflation jumped from 2.6 to 2.9 per cent. EM inflation hit 5.7 per cent as compared 1.4 per cent in DM. Chinese inflation made the largest contribution, jumping from 3.0 per cent to 4.5 per cent over the last two months. Indian inflation has also surged recently, mainly due to fresh food prices.
Global Credit Update
Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive (October 2018)
The recent steepening of government yield curves suggests that the nominal economic growth environment is robust. Real private debt growth in emerging markets has risen to 6 per cent, concentrated in bank loans. Advanced economies have sustained a steady 2 per cent real debt growth, despite a slowdown in bank lending. Credit spreads remain tight.Free Trial
Global Inflation Update
Concentrating on the Core (December 2018)
After a long period of stability global core CPI inflation is shifting higher, mirroring the acceleration of the global wage bill and the stronger pattern in DM producer price inflation. Emerging market inflation has rebounded in recent months, led by China, Argentina and Turkey. Inflation trends are diverging from activity trends.Free Trial