Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.
Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by email@example.com
Global Credit Perspective
What if we have to pay it back? (December 2019)
A surge in US corporate indebtedness since 2013 imperils global economic progress. The enthusiastic take up of the credit offer has not been matched by corporate earnings growth, creating multiple contexts of vulnerability. Consumer staples and discretionary, healthcare, IT and utilities deserve special mention. Small is dangerous.Free Trial
Global Inflation Perspective
Who is really hedged against a sudden rise in inflation? (June 2020)
Disagreements over inflation expectations are running high. Even though the probability that global economies experience a period of deflation in the short term is very close to one, investors seem to downplay the chances of a multi-year inflationary backlash.Free Trial
June 2020 - Suspended animation
In 2019, doctors placed humans in suspended animation for the first time, in a trial designed to make it possible to fix traumatic injuries that would otherwise cause death. The technique is known as Emergency Preservation and Resuscitation (EPR). Over at the US Federal Reserve, they have been working on a similar procedure for the corporate credit market. aimed at stabilising the price of credits that would otherwise be in mortal danger. The success of both techniques entails a rapid cooling process in which brain activity almost stops. In the medical field, the longer the period of suspended animation, the greater the risk of reperfusion injuries (cell damage) during warm-up. The Fed, on the other hand, sees suspended animation as a semi-permanent state and the risk of brain damage as a price worth paying.Free Trial
Growth was already weakening
Nominal GDP growth fell for the sixth consecutive quarter, shrugging off the year-long pivot to central bank easing. Coronavirus struck the global economy in its hour of weakness, sending activity and pricing tumbling towards the abyss. Despite policy interventions of epic proportions, the foundations for a rapid recovery are lacking.
Global Inflation Heat Maps
Timing the turning point
May saw another fall in aggregate inflation, but not by as much as April. Developed economies are in the midst of an uneasy exit from lockdowns, and the virus is becoming better understood. As economic activity revives, we anticipate significant price rebounds in the context of dislocated supply chains.
Macro Update April 2020
Smiling from ear to ear
The downfall of the US Dollar will be great when it arrives, but rumours of its demise have been exaggerated. The role of the Dollar as pre-eminent collateral has been reasserted by the global pandemic and reinforced by US selectivity in the approval of FX swap lines. A surging TED spread, signifying banking stress, is Dollar-positive.Free Trial