Publications

Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by info@economicperspectives.co.uk

Global Credit Perspective

The tide is going out on failed leverage experiments (May 2017)

The prospect of interest rate normalisation and the onset of a new debt default cycle throws a spotlight on financial stability. Looking across several indicators of credit-related stress, the most worrisome combinations of stress factors in advanced economies are found in UK, Netherlands and Denmark; in emerging economies, in China and Mexico.

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Global Inflation Perspective

Stagflation is spreading its tent (June 2017)

Inflationary fires are smouldering, notwithstanding the widely-expected tumble in the oil price. The inflationary threat lies in the latency of overheated labour markets, simmering supply networks and trigger-happy fiscal sheriffs. From US to Japan, from India to Russia, wage inflation and labour cost inflation are on the move.

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Global Credit Update

 This credit cycle is showing signs of fatigue (July 2017)

The gradual weakening of global credit metrics, particularly in real terms, poses a material threat to the global economic expansion in 2018-19. Central bankers often speak as though this is the beginning of a cyclical upturn: far from it. A fast-maturing credit cycle is about to tighten credit conditions more abruptly than policymakers or investors expect.

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Global Inflation Update

Food, glorious food, is getting more expensive (June 2017)

As expected, global inflation has paused after a breathless rush since last summer. Advanced economy inflation is consolidating, but emerging economy inflation is waiting in the wings to shock and surprise. This inflation will migrate through supply chains and networks to drive a second wave of global inflation.

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UK Economic Perspective

The incredible shrinking shopping basket (August 2017)

Cheap credit continues to buoy financial intermediaries and large companies, but the real economy has derived little benefit from the strength of credit and money aggregates over the past year. Household credit conditions have begun to tighten, closing off an important channel of support for the consumer economy.

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Eurozone Economic Perspective

Eurozone HY bonds on a 2.3 per cent yield, anyone? (August 2017)

The trade-weighted appreciation of the Euro, reaching 7.5 per cent since May, betrays an increasing expectation of ECB policy reversal. While the focus is understandably on the tapering of asset purchases, there are many other dimensions of policy normalisation that will be required. Draghi et al have been overtaken by events.

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North American Economic Perspective

Shocked to the core? (June 2017)

The relapse in crude oil, and hence domestic US fuel prices, is a distraction not an event. To repeat, the tight correlation between the oil price and 10-year inflation break-evens is a financial markets phenomenon, not an economic one. Today’s spot oil price contains no information about US CPI inflation in 2 years’ time, let alone 10 years’ time. Extreme positioning in US Treasuries leaves them vulnerable to abrupt reversals.

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Global Research Digest

July 2017



Chart of the month

Preparing for the next surge in inflation

UK broad credit and money trends

This credit cycle is showing signs of fatigue

US automakers try to stem the growing tide of used autos

Global inflation heatmap

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

July/August 2017

Inflationary pressures abated in the US, UK and continental Europe in June, dragging down the global inflation rate to 2.2%. Weakening oil prices have granted a universal reprieve, but recent developments mean this effect will be short lived. Inflationary momentum is building in a majority of emerging market economies.

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