Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.
Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by email@example.com
Global Credit Perspective
The devil is in de-tail (May 2019)
The quiescence of the US Fed has emboldened many investors to downgrade their assessment of credit risk. We recommend otherwise. Global profits have entered a bear market that will expose credit risk on an unexpected scale. Watch credit spreads and flows into credit funds for a timely commentary on the re-pricing of corporate credit.Free Trial
Global Inflation Perspective
US inflation risks are to the upside (July 2019)
Asian goods exporters appear to have taken a significant hit to their profitability over the past few months as a response to the impact of punitive tariffs. Accordingly, North American and European consumers have been shielded from their effects. Meanwhile service sector inflation continues to creep higher in most regions and contexts.Free Trial
Whatever it takes (October 2019)
Their willingness to undertake dramatic policy interventions is undiminished, but central banks’ freedom to do so is severely limited in the wake of the global financial crisis. The ECB is in dire need of a new bazooka but fears the political backlash from the extension of QE deeper into private sector assets. The US Fed’s challenge lies in the realm of liquidity and the emergence of desert and wilderness places in the US financial system. As trust evaporates, the distinction between the elite counterparties and the rest will become progressively wider, reflected in risk spreads.
The global economy is on the slide, but not in a slump. Annual nominal GDP growth dipped under 5 per cent for the first time since 2016. Improvements in China, Japan, France and Spain were more than offset by reverses in US, Germany, UK, Italy and India. The lurch to lower interest rates has steadied the ship but may be insufficient to regenerate growth.Free Trial
Global Inflation Heat Maps
August’s inflation data shows a moderation. Core inflation continues to rise in the US, reaching 2.4 per cent, including a big jump in goods prices. Chinese inflation continues to suffer the impact of elevated pork prices. Energy and transport inflation is receding, but the attack on Saudi oil installations warns of a reversal.
Global Credit Update
Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive (October 2018)
The recent steepening of government yield curves suggests that the nominal economic growth environment is robust. Real private debt growth in emerging markets has risen to 6 per cent, concentrated in bank loans. Advanced economies have sustained a steady 2 per cent real debt growth, despite a slowdown in bank lending. Credit spreads remain tight.Free Trial
Global Inflation Update
Concentrating on the Core (December 2018)
After a long period of stability global core CPI inflation is shifting higher, mirroring the acceleration of the global wage bill and the stronger pattern in DM producer price inflation. Emerging market inflation has rebounded in recent months, led by China, Argentina and Turkey. Inflation trends are diverging from activity trends.Free Trial