Publications

Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by info@economicperspectives.co.uk

Global Credit Perspective


What if we have to pay it back? (December 2019)

A surge in US corporate indebtedness since 2013 imperils global economic progress. The enthusiastic take up of the credit offer has not been matched by corporate earnings growth, creating multiple contexts of vulnerability. Consumer staples and discretionary, healthcare, IT and utilities deserve special mention. Small is dangerous.    

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Global Inflation Perspective


US consumption is about to fold (March 2020)

Growing uncertainty around Covid-19 has triggered panic buying of government and toilet paper alike. Consumer confidence surveys will soon reflect significant and lasting disruption to household incomes and tighter credit conditions, breaking the sequence of consumption growth and ushering in much lower nominal GDP growth.

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Market Focus

February 2020 - Transaction declined

Central bankers have come to resemble snake oil salesmen and women, fervently promoting their latest potions and ointments to a sceptical public. While offers of cheap wholesale credit will almost always find ready takers on the fringes of the financial system, the business of pressing finance into the sweaty palms of the general public has attracted unwanted oversight and scrutiny. The retail response to last year’s easing campaign remains lacklustre outside a few EMs in Central Europe and Asia. In advanced economies, where the most adventurous monetary experiments have occurred, policy traction is poor and policy transmission is tenuous. The outlook is for consumer retrenchment in 2020; the DM economic recovery is a mirage.

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GDP Heatmaps

January 2020

The tide of global growth is clearly ebbing, a source of increasing concern. Apart from a technical rebound in the pace of nominal GDP growth in Japan, there was little cheer in the Q3 data as we head back to a 4 per cent world. Subsequently, inflation indicators have firmed due to food and energy prices, while real growth has dipped again.   

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

February/March 2020


Global GDP-weighted inflation rose again in January to 3.5 per cent, up from 2.5 per cent in September. US inflation is 2.5 per cent, headline CPI in China is 5.4 per cent. In India it’s 7.6 per cent. 45 out of 53 countries in our sample have headline inflation higher than 3 months ago. Beware stale market narratives!

 
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Global Credit Update

 
Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive (October 2018)

The recent steepening of government yield curves suggests that the nominal economic growth environment is robust. Real private debt growth in emerging markets has risen to 6 per cent, concentrated in bank loans. Advanced economies have sustained a steady 2 per cent real debt growth, despite a slowdown in bank lending. Credit spreads remain tight.  

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Global Inflation Update


Concentrating on the Core (December 2018)

After a long period of stability global core CPI inflation is shifting higher, mirroring the acceleration of the global wage bill and the stronger pattern in DM producer price inflation. Emerging market inflation has rebounded in recent months, led by China, Argentina and Turkey. Inflation trends are diverging from activity trends.

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