Publications

Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by info@economicperspectives.co.uk

Global Credit Perspective


Dettes sans frontières (November 2018)

Credit creation has gone viral in a world of very low interest rates. Alternative forms of unsecured debt are exploding on to the scene with astonishing regularity and success. Nowhere is as desperate for Alt-finance as China. At current, exponential growth rates, these new expressions of debt may already have macroeconomic significance.

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Global Inflation Perspective


Core inflation to stand firm (January 2019)

The recent violent correction in crude oil prices is still washing through global headline CPI data but the seepage into core inflation will likely be mild and brief. While cyclical inflation pressures are softening, structural pressures emanating from capacity depletion, oligopoly pricing, skill shortages and government regulation are strengthening.  

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Market Focus

Surprise! The Fed is market dependent! (February 2019)


January’s key event was the confirmation of what has come to be known as the Powell pivot. His shaky press conference on 30 January exposed the banality of the Fed’s data-dependent mantra. In a near-total loss of nerve, the Fed chair appealed to the drop in the price of inflation compensation as a justification for suspending the sequence of rate hikes. Unless Powell reasserts the Fed’s independence – of market sensitivities and presidential whims – then the central bank’s future is captivity. Perhaps he understands now why his predecessors communicated through mystic models.

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GDP Heatmaps

January 2019

Allowing for the typhoon-disrupted data for Japan, the September quarter held fast to the 6 per cent nominal pace first recorded a year ago. While 28 countries reported faster inflation in Q3, only 17 scored higher annual real GDP growth, mostly by the thinnest of margins and none in Asia. The US is no locomotive.

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

February/March 2019

The prospective alleviation of Sino-US trade tensions and the partial recovery of the Brent oil price point to an early stabilisation of global headline inflation. Meanwhile core inflation has strengthened marginally in the Eurozone and Japan, reflecting the importance of structural over cyclical developments.

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Global Credit Update

 
Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive (October 2018)

The recent steepening of government yield curves suggests that the nominal economic growth environment is robust. Real private debt growth in emerging markets has risen to 6 per cent, concentrated in bank loans. Advanced economies have sustained a steady 2 per cent real debt growth, despite a slowdown in bank lending. Credit spreads remain tight. 

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Global Inflation Update


Concentrating on the Core (December 2018)

After a long period of stability global core CPI inflation is shifting higher, mirroring the acceleration of the global wage bill and the stronger pattern in DM producer price inflation. Emerging market inflation has rebounded in recent months, led by China, Argentina and Turkey. Inflation trends are diverging from activity trends.

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