Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.
Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by email@example.com
Global Credit Perspective
When will bond investors recognise the inflationary threat? (September 2020)
A decade ago, Reinhart and Rogoff warned that elevated public debts would diminish the prospects for economic growth. A re-examination of this issue in the context of even greater public indebtedness turns the spotlight on inflation rather than growth. The debt vigilantes have become irrelevant in a world where government bonds are regulatory assets.Free Trial
Global Inflation Perspective
Who is really hedged against a sudden rise in inflation? (June 2020)
Disagreements over inflation expectations are running high. Even though the probability that global economies experience a period of deflation in the short term is very close to one, investors seem to downplay the chances of a multi-year inflationary backlash. Free Trial
July/August 2020 - Extend and Pretend
A reticent consumer makes for a tentative retailer. Consumer-facing businesses in North America and Europe are staging the re-opening of their premises and keeping millions of workers on taxpayer-financed income replacement schemes. The furloughed masses are becoming less confident that they will be called back and hence more furtive in their spending behaviour. Like a nationwide game of ‘chicken’, businesses are daring the politicians to withdraw income support (at the risk of public revolt) and politicians are threatening businesses with the removal of their privileges if they do not bring back their workforces. Maybe the CARES Act cash payments should have been time-limited shopping vouchers!Free Trial
Stagflation is a material risk
Nominal and Real GDP growth fell sharply almost everywhere in Q1 as the pandemic-related lockdowns hit the tape. Amidst a sea of economic carnage, the GDP deflator’s annual pace ticked up to 2.1 per cent. Real growth and inflation narratives are related but distinct: don’t talk about deflation in Latin America!
Global Inflation Heat Maps
Inflation is the most viable resolution
Inflation aggregates moved higher again in July. The rise was relatively broad-based across regions and categories and core inflation measures increased in line with headline measures. The dramatic reallocation of consumer spending between categories in recent months means that current CPI weights are seriously out of date.
Macro Update April 2020
Smiling from ear to ear
The downfall of the US Dollar will be great when it arrives, but rumours of its demise have been exaggerated. The role of the Dollar as pre-eminent collateral has been reasserted by the global pandemic and reinforced by US selectivity in the approval of FX swap lines. A surging TED spread, signifying banking stress, is Dollar-positive.Free Trial