Publications

Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.

Latest Publications

Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by info@economicperspectives.co.uk

Global Credit Perspective

Corporate debt can be rolled indefinitely. Personal debt cannot.(September 2017)

Can interest rates stay low for ever? Is the reallocation of expenditures from debt service to household consumption and business investment permanent? An unanticipated rise in borrowing costs by even 200 basis points would bring material economic disruption in some countries. Canada, Australia and Sweden look the most vulnerable.

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Global Inflation Perspective

The global inflation trend switched direction in 2016 (September 2017)

The acceleration of global nominal GDP implies faster nominal wage and profits growth. A more urgent adjustment of short-term interest rates and 10-year bond yields has arrived. Last year’s oil price bounce has been digested and absorbed. Inflation is bursting out of supply chains, labour and commodity markets.

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Global Credit Update

 The engine warning light is on for the current phase of global credit (October 2017)

Global growth surprises continue to belie the threat to 2018 outturns posed by weakening global credit metrics and compounded by rising inflation. Developed economy central bankers are preparing to tighten, but they are already too late. A fading credit cycle is about to tighten credit conditions more abruptly than policymakers or investors expect.

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Global Inflation Update

Chinese inflation – CPI is not the whole story (December 2017)

A dramatic monetary acceleration confirms the reversal of disinflationary dynamics in the emerging world. Globally, consumer price inflation levelled out in the summer and is tracking higher. Core CPI inflation has edged up in US and Japan. Looking beyond the CPI, many measures of Chinese inflation are markedly stronger this year.

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UK Economic Perspective

Brexit is personal and political (October 2017)

This is a tense time for the UK economy as the consumer leaves centre stage. The supporting acts of business investment and net exports are notoriously unreliable. Fiscal relaxation could save the day, but Chancellor Hammond has stage fright. The road to April 2019 looks long and arduous, unless he rises to the occasion or steps aside.

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Eurozone Economic Perspective

Time for divergence trades again (November 2017)

Strong economic momentum in the Euro area masks abject failure in terms of regional integration and cohesion. Five years on from “whatever it takes”, colossal monetary stimulus shows few signs of narrowing regional disparities. The ECB’s tough stance on the UK’s divorce bill is a timely reminder that the EU lacks a federal support mechanism.

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North American Economic Perspective

Shocked to the core? (October 2017)

The magnetic attraction of the inflation rate to the Fed’s 2 per cent objective will soon be stress-tested to the upside, despite the protestations of the deflationists. The latest US budget proposals identify the president as an inflationist and a pragmatist. The FOMC is unlikely to change course on the normalisation of interest rates as long as an expansionary budget is under consideration.

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Global Research Digest

October 2017



Chart of the month

Central bank independence: use it or lose it

The engine warning light is on for the current phase of global credit

An alternative sovereign credit ranking

Brexit, political uncertainty and the balance of payments

Global Inflation Heat Map

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Global Inflation Heat Maps

November/December 2017

Inflationary momentum is continuing build, with the last few months seeing an upward trend in both advanced and emerging composites. Food inflation is stronger in most markets and disinflationary pressures are easing in communications. Core inflation is heading higher in US and Japan.

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