Monitoring economic and financial developments in more than 40 countries helps us to develop rich narratives around the outlook for global and regional activity, employment and inflation. We release our research publications when we have something to say, not because it is the third Friday of the month. We aim to be provocative and insightful in our research, unafraid to challenge the mainstream view where we think it is lacking.
Our most recent publications are summarised below. To access our full publications or to browse through our publication catalogue, please contact us by firstname.lastname@example.org
Global Credit Perspective
The end of extend and pretend (October 2019)
The bifurcation of corporate credit is underway, as investors desert weaker-rated bonds in favour of investment grade and government bonds. Central banks can no longer throw their cloak of protection over the whole market. The blighted portion of the corporate debt market is expected to include high yield and some BBB bonds and leveraged loans.Free Trial
Global Inflation Perspective
US inflation risks are to the upside (July 2019)
Asian goods exporters appear to have taken a significant hit to their profitability over the past few months as a response to the impact of punitive tariffs. Accordingly, North American and European consumers have been shielded from their effects. Meanwhile service sector inflation continues to creep higher in most regions and contexts.Free Trial
Dicing with debt (November 2019)
It is difficult to overestimate the impact of cheap and abundant credit on US equity market performance. A thorough examination of the relationship between the use of debt, profits and stock price appreciation reveals that the winning combination is worsening net debt and profits improvement. Those companies that have availed themselves of the opportunity to load up on debt have reaped the reward of share price outperformance, while those that have abstained or reduced their use of debt have been punished.
The global economy is on the slide, but not in a slump. Annual nominal GDP growth dipped under 5 per cent for the first time since 2016. Improvements in China, Japan, France and Spain were more than offset by reverses in US, Germany, UK, Italy and India. The lurch to lower interest rates has steadied the ship but may be insufficient to regenerate growth.Free Trial
Global Inflation Heat Maps
October saw global headline inflation tick back up to 2.6 per cent. Chinese inflation made the largest contribution, jumping from 3.0 per cent to 3.8 per cent in a month. Indian inflation surged in October, mainly due to fresh food prices. The strength of EM inflation argues for higher future import inflation in developed markets.
Global Credit Update
Global credit trends are mixed, but still positive (October 2018)
The recent steepening of government yield curves suggests that the nominal economic growth environment is robust. Real private debt growth in emerging markets has risen to 6 per cent, concentrated in bank loans. Advanced economies have sustained a steady 2 per cent real debt growth, despite a slowdown in bank lending. Credit spreads remain tight.Free Trial
Global Inflation Update
Concentrating on the Core (December 2018)
After a long period of stability global core CPI inflation is shifting higher, mirroring the acceleration of the global wage bill and the stronger pattern in DM producer price inflation. Emerging market inflation has rebounded in recent months, led by China, Argentina and Turkey. Inflation trends are diverging from activity trends.Free Trial